Vital Perspective

Incentive Details: U.S. to Give Iran Nuke Technology if Enrichment Ends

Details of the secret incentive package for Iran are emerging that are sure to make major headlines. Via AP: In a major concession, the U.S. is prepared to provide Iran with some nuclear technology if it stops enriching uranium, diplomats said Tuesday.

The offer was part of a package of incentives presented to Tehran on Tuesday by EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, said the diplomats, who were familiar with the proposals. The diplomats demanded anonymity in exchange for discussing details of the offer, which was agreed on last week by six world powers in a bid to resolve the nuclear standoff with Iran.

We suspect that there will soon be confusion between nuclear technology, which is the carrot du jour, and nuclear fuel. Nuclear fuel is fissionable materials that have been enriched to such a composition that, when placed in a nuclear reactor, will support a self-sustaining fission chain reaction, producing heat in a controlled manner for process use. By contrast, nuclear technology is technology that involves the reactions of atomic nuclei. It has found applications from smoke detectors to nuclear reactors, and from gun sights to nuclear weapons.

Certainly, any nuclear technology the U.S. would provide Iran if the regime ended enrichment and reprocessing activities would be limited to civilian energy applications. For example, in the U.S. deal to provide India with nuclear technology, it was noted in the Washington Post that under the terms, India "would have access, for the first time, to conventional weapons systems and to sensitive U.S. nuclear technology that can be used in either a civilian or a military program." It is possible to read this as a statement that the U.S. has the capability to determine what nuclear technology can be used for civilian energy purposes, and what nuclear technology can be used for a weapon, and provide it as such. Remember, the international position is that Iran has a right to civil nuclear energy.

UPDATE 6/6 @ 12:34: UPI reports that U.S. concessions include ending a near 30-year trade embargo on purchasing U.S. agricultural technology, as well as the sale of Boeing and European Airbus aircraft parts.

UPDATE 6/6 @ 12:51: Little Green Footballs notes that in 2004, John Kerry proposed that rather than letting the EU-3 work alone to keep Iran from obtaining nuclear materials on their own, that we together call the bluff of the Iranian regime, which claims that its only need is energy. And we say to them: "Fine, we will provide you the fuel that you need if Russia fails to provide it." -- Plus, this from the campaign website, which is obviously no longer available:

Iran claims that its nuclear program is only to meet its domestic energy needs. John Kerry’s proposal would call their bluff by organizing a group of states to offer Iran the nuclear fuel they need for peaceful purposes and take back the spent fuel so they cannot divert it to build a weapon. If Iran does not accept this offer, their true motivations will be clear.

Ahmadinejad: Iran Will Reject Proposals Requiring Nuke Program to End

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says Tehran will reject any offer by European envoys that requires an end to Iran's nuclear activities, saying on state television Sunday that any such offer would be invalid.

Negotiators from the EU-3 are drawing up incentives to offer Tehran in exchange for a guarantee that Iran will suspend uranium enrichment. If Tehran rejects the offer, the U.S. and the Europeans say they will press for a Chapter VII Security Council resolution.

EU foreign ministers will meet Monday in Brussels to discuss an incentives package that would also offer penalties for non-compliance. The P-5 + 1 will meet in London on May 19 to consider the package.

New Diplomatic Posture May Bring P-5 Unity on Sanctions Against Iran: WP

Thursday's editorial in the Washington Post soundly rejects the Ahmadinejad letter, calling it "a manifesto that sounds more like those of Osama bin Laden and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi than of a government interested in detente," while at the same time expressing hope that the new diplomatic path of offering an incentive package along with the threat of sanctions to Tehran will finally bring Russia and China into the fold.

"The Bush administration's hope is that Russia and China will join in the coalition making the carrot-and-stick pitch -- and that they will agree to passage of a Security Council resolution ordering an end to uranium enrichment at the same time the package is delivered to Tehran. If that happened, the effort to restrain Iran would make an important advance, since until now neither Russia nor China has been prepared to support sanctions, much less join a coalition to threaten them."

Ari Shavit in Ha'aretz puts the situation in very clear terms: "Iran is not Libya or South Africa. It will not give up its nuclear program willingly. But Iran is also not India nor Pakistan. The West cannot accept Iran's nuclear project. Therefore, the confrontation is inevitable. In the best case scenario, it will end the way the Cuban missile crisis did; in the worst case scenario, it will turn ugly and irradiate the Middle East."

Shavit writes that at the diplomatic level, the crisis may peak as early as this summer. From a military standpoint, the crisis may reach its zenith in the winter, after the midterm elections. Either way, 2007 will be a critical year. It poses a challenge to the West of a kind that it has not faced since the Cold War.

That timetable may or may not play out. All that we are certain of is that a Chapter VII resolution is the immediate goal. Our concern remains that valuable time continues to be lost as Iran's scientists race towards technological self-sufficiency, but if the end result is a Chapter VII resolution (which would represent breaking through a major diplomatic barrier), then the ends will justify the means of this new track.

U.S. Dismisses Ahmadinejad Letter; UN Talks on Chapter VII Stalling

President Bush has dismissed a surprise letter from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as a rambling 18-page document that was little more than a philosophical treatise, as world powers struggled to deal with Tehran's nuclear ambitions. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was equally unimpressed.

"There is nothing in this letter that in any way addresses any of the issues really that are on the table in the international community," Rice told the editorial board of the Associated Press, according to a State Department transcript. "It is most assuredly not a proposal," she said. "There is nothing in here that would suggest that we're on any different course than we were before we got the letter."

The letter, written in English, is filled with religious references and revisits many of the grievances Tehran has against Washington. Ahmadinejad proposed a return to religious principles as a means of restoring confidence.

"That is, a genuine return to the teachings of prophets, to monotheism and justice, to preserve human dignity and obedience to the Almighty and His prophets?" read the letter. It also said people of the world "have no faith in international organizations, because their rights are not advocated by these organizations."

Tehran announced the letter before talks late Monday in New York of foreign ministers of the P-5 +1 and the EU to try to map out a strategy to force Iran to halt their nuclear program. The P-5 failed to reach a consensus on a possible Chapter VII resolution, a U.S. official said early Tuesday. German FM Frank-Walter Steinmeier said he believed it would take up to two weeks to reach agreement.

Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, meanwhile, praised Russia and China for taking a "realistic" approach. Moscow and Beijing, which have close economic ties with Iran, have not supported a proposed draft resolution.

U.S. Dismisses Ahmadinejad Letter; UN Talks on Chapter VII Stalling

President Bush has dismissed a surprise letter from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as a rambling 18-page document that was little more than a philosophical treatise, as world powers struggled to deal with Tehran's nuclear ambitions. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was equally unimpressed.

"There is nothing in this letter that in any way addresses any of the issues really that are on the table in the international community," Rice told the editorial board of the Associated Press, according to a State Department transcript. "It is most assuredly not a proposal," she said. "There is nothing in here that would suggest that we're on any different course than we were before we got the letter."

The letter, written in English, is filled with religious references and revisits many of the grievances Tehran has against Washington. Ahmadinejad proposed a return to religious principles as a means of restoring confidence.

"That is, a genuine return to the teachings of prophets, to monotheism and justice, to preserve human dignity and obedience to the Almighty and His prophets?" read the letter. It also said people of the world "have no faith in international organizations, because their rights are not advocated by these organizations."

Tehran announced the letter before talks late Monday in New York of foreign ministers of the P-5 +1 and the EU to try to map out a strategy to force Iran to halt their nuclear program. The P-5 failed to reach a consensus on a possible Chapter VII resolution, a U.S. official said early Tuesday. German FM Frank-Walter Steinmeier said he believed it would take up to two weeks to reach agreement.

Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, meanwhile, praised Russia and China for taking a "realistic" approach. Moscow and Beijing, which have close economic ties with Iran, have not supported a proposed draft resolution.

China Clear on Opposition to Chapter VII UNSCR on Iran, Won't Use Veto Power

China made clear on Monday it opposed the core of a Western-backed Chapter VII Security Council resolution ordering Tehran to curb its nuclear program but would not use its veto power to kill the measure.

China's UN ambassador, Wang Guangya, spoke hours before his own foreign minister and those of Russia, Britain, France and Germany were to have dinner in New York with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

Moscow and Beijing want a resolution but oppose specifying Chapter VII, which is used routinely in dozens of Security Council resolutions for peacekeeping missions and other legally-binding actions. The U.S., France and Britain insist on Chapter VII. It allows for sanctions and even war, but a separate resolution would be required to invoke further steps of that nature.

France and Britain, authors of the U.S.-backed draft the Council is now discussing, said they were prepared to bring the measure to a vote this week, even without Russian or Chinese backing.

Update on Diplomatic Posturing by P-5 +1 on Iran's Nuclear Program

The Security Council is expected to take up the issue of a Chapter VII resolution on Wednesday requiring Iran to cease its nuclear activities, although it is unclear when Tehran might face penalties. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns has told reporters the U.S., Britain, and France will introduce a Chapter VII resolution soon but he expected drawn-out discussions. State Department Spokesman Sean McCormack said on Monday that "specific texts" are being looked at. Such a resolution can carry the punishment of sanctions or even military force, but Russia and China, which have veto power, have repeatedly spoken against such measures.

If the Security Council is unwilling or unable to impose sanctions on Iran, then "I'm sure we would press ahead to ask other countries or other groups of countries to impose those sanctions," Ambassador John Bolton told the House Subcommittee on National Security, Emerging Threats and International Relation on Tuesday.

The P-5 + 1 launched another round of meetings on Tuesday in Paris to discuss the issue (the first among senior representatives of the six countries since the ElBaradai report on Friday), and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet with President Bush later today to discuss the crisis. Merkel is expected to press Bush on opening a direct dialogue with Iranian officials. There is already a chorus of U.S. supporters of a direct dialogue, including two senior State Department officials under Secretary Richard Armitage, Richard Haas of CFR, Senators Bayh, Dodd, Feinstein and Lugar, Gov. Bill Richardson, and the Arms Control Association. Thus far the Administration has resisited such calls.

Iran Produces Higher Levels of Enriched Uranium as UNSC Debates Sanctions

While the Security Council debates sanctions against Iran, scientists in the Islamic Republic have managed to enrich uranium up to 4.8 percent with its 164-centrifuge cascade, the head of the country's atomic energy organisation told the ISNA student news agency today.

"The latest level of enrichment carried out in Iran has been 4.8 percent. Enrichment of more than five percent is not on Iran's agenda and this level suffices for making nuclear fuel," ISNA quoted Gholam Reza Aghazadeh as saying.

This is just the first step in justifying what we wrote on April 10, that "it's far more difficult to go from 0 to 3.5 percent than it is to go from 3.5 percent to 90 percent," and what Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Robert Joseph said on April 21, "If you can produce to 3.5 percent, you're well on your way to producing enriched uranium at a much higher content, including weapons grade material." When uranium is enriched to 90 percent, the fissile core of an atom bomb can be produced.

Aghazadeh also reiterated that Iran plans to upgrade its enrichment facilities. "Construction work and preparation of centrifuge machines are being done to create a 3,000-centrifuge cascade," he said. A 3,000 centrifuge unit which could produce enough highly-enriched uranium for a bomb.

Vital Perspective Exclusive: IAEA Report Shows Iranian Defiance Continues

The IAEA report on the Iranian nuclear program is quite damning and points out the 20 years of Iran's deception and its total unwillingness to answer for conduct. It discloses that Iran has been working on advanced P-2 centrifuges – as Ahmadinejad bragged about last week – revealing a previously unknown secret track toward nuclear bomb fuel, outside of that which the IAEA had been following previously. P-2 centrifuges are more sophisticated and reliable, making it easier for Iran to ramp up the production of enriched uranium.

Their other work – on plutonium, recent successful work on the 164-centrifuge cascade and announcement last week of the production of enriched uranium – and their stated ambition to install 3,000 centrifuges over the next several months is extremely worrisome. You read it here first.

With just 1,500 centrifuges running in concert, Iran could produce enough fuel for a nuclear bomb in less than a year. Iranian officials have stated they will build a full-scale 3,000-centrifuge operation later this year, with the ultimate objective of deploying 54,000 centrifuges by the end of 2007.

According to the report, "gaps remain in the Agency's [IAEA] knowledge with respect to the scope and content of Iran's centrifuge programme. Because of this, and other gaps in the Agency's knowledge, including the role of the military in Iran's nuclear programme, the Agency is unable to make progress in its efforts to provide assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran."

With Tehran continuing to defy the international community, the Security Council is expected to consider the use of strong economic and political sanctions as tools to dissuade Iran from developing nuclear weapons under Chapter VII. Thankfully, most analysts expect a Chapter VII, (i.e., legally binding resolution) to be passed in the coming weeks with or without Russian support. However, our concern remains that valuable time continues to be lost as Iran's scientists race towards technological self-sufficiency, while the international community continues to debate its reaction. The Chapter VII resolution will only provide the legal context for future sanctions, which are not expected until later this year.

For the record, the long list of nuclear activities Iran kept hidden from the IAEA includes:

1. Clandestine construction of a pilot uranium enrichment facility;
2. Construction of a large-scale enrichment facility;
3. Construction of a facility to convert uranium yellowcake into uranium hexafluoride gas (UF₆) - which then can be enriched to create nuclear bombs;
4. Construction of a heavy-water reactor that can be used to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons without having to master the uranium enrichment process;
5. Importation of the design and components for centrifuges used to enrich uranium;
6. Importation of 1.8 tons of uranium yellowcake;
7. Experimentation with the separation of plutonium;
8. Experimentation with polonium (a radioactive isotope used to trigger and boost nuclear explosions);
9. Importation of instructions on how to weaponize highly enriched uranium.

Iran's cooperation is an oxymoron, as the IAEA attests in the latest report: "After more than three years of Agency efforts to seek clarity about all aspects of Iran's nuclear programme, the existing gaps in knowledge continue to be a matter of concern... The Agency cannot make a judgment about, or reach a conclusion on, future compliance or intentions."

Ahmadinejad's continued threats against the West, U.S., and Israel, denial of the Holocaust, and open defiance of the Security Council, leave no doubt this is a dictator with a deadly agenda. His messianic vision of extremist Shiite armageddon should not be taken lightly.

Our sources tell us that European leaders are expressing growing alarm in private conversations about the implications of a genocidal dictator armed with nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them. Vital Perspective remains committed to providing the latest facts and insight on what we believe is the gravest threat of our time.

Ahmadinejad: Iran Doesn't Give a Damn About IAEA Report, UN Action

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Friday that Iran would pay no attention to international calls to halt its nuclear work, hours before the IAEA reports on Tehran insubordination to Security Council demands.

"Those who want to prevent Iranians from obtaining their right, should know that we do not give a damn to such resolutions," Ahmadinejad told a rally in northwest Iran. "Enemies think that by ... threatening us, launching psychological warfare or ... imposing embargos can dissuade our nation to obtain nuclear technology."

Despite the "we do't give a damn" attitude, Iran unsuccessfully tried to lobby the IAEA in the 11th hour this week. We expect to obtain the report from sources by midday today. Continue to check back with us for key documents and analysis.