Vital Perspective

IDF Official: Iran Will Have Nukes 'In Near Future'; GCC Contemplates Program

MediaLine reports that Maj.-Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky, Israel's deputy chief of General Staff told a conference of mayors on Friday that Iran would have nuclear weapons "in the near future." Kaplinsky warned of the danger of the deepening alliance among Hezbollah, Syria, Iran and Hamas, saying that, "The deeper the connection between [them]… the more we need to worry." He said Syria was continuing to rearm Hezbollah while both Hezbollah and Syria prepared for another round of warfare against Israel. Reports in Israeli media indicate that the army is anticipating the possibility of a resumption of the Lebanon war next summer.

Meanwhile, Arab states in the Gulf announced at the end of a two-day GCC summit in Riyadh today that they were considering a shared nuclear program "for peaceful purposes" as Iran continues its nuclear ambitions. The GCC is comprised of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman.

Omani FM: U.S. Gave Iraq to al-Qaeda, Denies Concern from Iran's Influence

Omani FM Yussef bin Alawi bin Abdullah has accused the U.S. in comments published yesterday of delivering Iraq to al-Qaeda and called for a change of strategy. "The root of the US predicament in Iraq ... is Al Qaeda which has established itself there and now controls whole regions," Yussef bin Alawi bin Abdullah told the London-based Arabic daily Al-Hayat. "We hope that they will rethink their policy."

He denied that the growing influence in Iraq of Shiite Iran was the key concern of Gulf Arab states. "It’s not so much the expansion of Shiism that they fear as the deteriorating security inside Iraq."

Abdullah also said Oman had no plans to resume trade ties with Israel broken off after the renewed Palestinian uprising broke out six years ago. "There's no reason to reopen (our trade office) at a time when Israel is not making the slightest move towards peace and is continuing its aggression against the Palestinians," he said.

Understanding 5,000 Years of Imperial History in the Middle East in 90 Seconds

Here's something interesting we found over at Evangelical Outpost. Ever wondered who has controlled the Middle East over the course of history? This great animation takes you through the last 5,000 years in just 90 seconds.

Yemeni PM to Ask Donor Conference for $48 Billion to Help GCC Membership

Yemeni PM Abdel Kader Bajammal says that his country needs $48 billion over a decade for upgrades in infrastructure, combating poverty and unemployment, and boosting education in order to catch up with oil-rich Gulf Arab economies.

Ministers from Yemen and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE discussed preparations for a Yemen donors' meeting slated for November 15 and 16 in London being held in cooperation with the World Bank in an effort to muster funds for development.

Yemeni planning and international cooperation minister Abdel Karim Al Arhabi was quoted last month as saying that Yemen would ask donors for $10 billion in aid over five years to help prepare it for GCC membership.

The only country in the Arabian Peninsula without direct access to the Gulf and its only republic, Yemen has for a decade been knocking at the GCC's door. The GCC partners, which forged their alliance in 1981, have been in no hurry to admit the poor country of some 20 million into their ranks. However, in December 2001, Yemen won GCC approval to join some of the bloc's councils - in the fields of education, social affairs, health, and sports.

Bush to Sign U.S.-Oman Free Trade Agreement Today; Fifth FTA in Region

President Bush will sign the U.S.-Oman Free Trade Agreement today at 13:30, the fifth such extensive trade pact with a Middle Eastern country since he took office, a spokeswoman said Monday. The FTA with Oman is part of an effort by Washington to create a Middle East Free Trade Area (MEFTA) by 2013, building on existing agreements with Israel, Jordan, Morocco and Bahrain.

Bush has said he wants greater trade not just for commercial benefits to U.S. companies but for the political openness he believes could result in one of the world's most restive regions. Critics led by Democratic opponents in Congress have argued the Oman trade pact would erode labor rights both in the U.S. and in other countries.

Senate OKs Oman Free Trade Agreement, Rewarding Friend, War on Terror Ally

Congress gave final approval Tuesday by a vote of 63-31 in the Senate to a free trade agreement with Oman, ending several months of debate. The bill is now on its way to be signed by President Bush into law. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) said the agreement would help the U.S. "advance our goal of a freer and more open Middle East" and commended Oman as a longtime friend and a committed ally "in the global war on terror."

The Oman FTA would immediately end all duties on industrial and consumer products sold between the U.S. and Oman, and Oman would remove duties on 87 percent of U.S. agricultural imports and eliminate all tariffs within 10 years. The deal also opens the Omani market to more U.S. business in service sectors like telecommunications and banking.

Trade between the U.S. and Oman totals less than $1.2 billion annually, but the administration pushed hard on the deal, stressing both Oman's long history as a strategic ally and the goal of establishing a Middle East free trade area by 2013. It is the fifth U.S. FTA in the Middle East and the fourth with an Arab country following recent pacts with Jordan, Morocco and Bahrain. The United States' oldest free trade partner in the region is Israel.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley (R-IA) said Oman has been "a consistent ally where we need one very much, in an unstable part of the world." But the agreement drew fire, mainly from Democrats who said that it did too little to ensure that trade with Oman wouldn't come at the expense of worker rights and the environment.

The Senate originally passed the bill implementing the agreement last June on a 60-34 vote. The House, where opposition to free trade agreements is generally stronger, narrowly approved it in July on a 221-205 vote; the measure returned to the Senate for Tuesday's procedural confirmation of its previous vote.

Pentagon Plans to Sell Nearly $5 Billion in Tanks, Helicopters to Arab States

This morning it was reported by al-Jazeera that the U.S. plans to sell arms worth $4.6 billion to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Oman. In the newly proposed sale, battle tanks worth $2.9 billion and AH-64 Apache helicopters worth $400 million will be sold to Saudi Arabia. The UAE would get $808 million worth of UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters and Bahrain would get $252 million worth. Jordan would get a potential $156 million in upgrades to 1,000 of its M113 A1 armored personnel carriers (APCs). Javelin anti-tank missiles worth $48 million would go to Oman under the deals put forward by the Pentagon's defense security agency, which administers all  government-to-government arms sales.

Notices of proposed U.S. arms sales are required by law once they pass certain value thresholds. Congress may block a sale if both houses pass resolutions of disapproval within 30 days of formal notification.

As Jordanian Free Trade Agreement Falters, Senate Approves Oman FTA

The U.S.-Jordan Free Trade Agreement, which was signed in October 2000, is not meeting its full potential and worker rights in Jordan continue to be violated as a result, say experts from both nations.

"Many of us use Jordan as a model and so we are now testing reality against our hopes," said Gene Sperling, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. "The reality is nowhere near the ideals of the agreement."

The Jordanian government has not adhered to International Labor Organization standards, according to a new report titled, "Justice for All: The Struggle for Worker Rights in Jordan," published by the Solidarity Center earlier this year. The report and a May 3 article in The New York Times exposed how some workers in Jordanian industries labored under sweatshop conditions.

Meanwhile, the U.S.-Oman Free Trade Agreement took another step forward today with approval in the Senate by vote of 60-24. It is still pending in the House. Senate approval was widely considered to be a major hurdle for the White House, and is now expected to be approved by the House, possibly by election day.

Bush Sends Oman FTA to Congress Without Forced Labor Provision

President Bush has sent a tree trade agreement with Oman to Capitol Hill for approval, but Sen. Harry Reid feels that the agreement is inadequate for omitting a provision barring goods made with forced labor. He called the omission "deeply disappointing." The Senate Finance Committee voted to include that provision as part of its nonbinding recommendations for the implementing bill, but the House Ways and Means Committee did not.

A spokesman for the U.S. Trade Representative's office said there was no need to include the provision in the bill. "We have no reason to suspect that goods made with slave labor would be imported from Oman into the United States. Oman has acted in good faith from the start of the free trade agreement process," USTR spokesman Stephen Norton said. Also, "we have agreed to update lawmakers periodically as Oman takes whatever legislative steps are needed to update and clarify their labor laws," Norton said.

The Senate Finance Committee is expected vote Wednesday on the FTA.

Oman, Iraq Support Iranian Nuclear Program; India, Pakistan Under Pressure

Oman, with a shoreline just 50 miles across the Strait of Hormuz from Iran, and Iraqi FM Hoshyar Zebari have recently expressed support for Iran's nuclear program, while powerful Islamist groups and political parties are pressuring the Pakistani government to avoid aligning with the U.S. and other Western powers.

Simultaneously, the U.S. is working diplomatic channels to get Pakistan and India to  forego the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline project in favor of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan pipeline project. India is reportedly being pushed by the U.S. to give up the Iran deal in return for cooperation on civilian nuclear technology (which has yet to win Congressional approval, though legislators are warming to the proposal), and Indian participation in the project would make the pipeline more attractive for Pakistan in terms of an annual $700 million in royalties.

In comments earlier this week that the international community should drop its demands that Tehran prove it's not trying to build a nuclear weapon, Zebari explained that "Iran doesn't claim that they want to obtain a nuclear weapon or a nuclear bomb, so there is no need that we ask them for any guarantee now." Sure... because Iran has always been so honest and forthcoming with information on their nuclear program.

Omani leaders have said publicly they have no reason to doubt Iran's assertion that its nuclear program is peaceful, despite international concerns of a secret military component.

Analysts say that Oman's subtle solidarity with Iran owes in part to fears of how isolation and military action could affect Oman's own economy and stability. Oman was also the only Gulf country to maintain good relations with Iran during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war between Saddam Hussein's secular government and the Shiite regime.

"We don't think Oman would let the Americans use their bases... We don't think countries in this area would let foreigners use their land to attack Iran," Mohammad Javad Asayesh Zarshi, the Iranian Ambassador to Oman said. "I think the officials in Oman will make a good decision, as they did during the (Iran-Iraq) war."