Vital Perspective

French Presidential Candidate Chooses Israel, Lebanon for First Overseas Trip

France's Segolene Royal, Socialist candidate for next year's presidential election, will take her first overseas trip since winning her party's nomination with a trip to Israel. She is due to arrive in Israel for a two-day visit on Sunday. Reportedly, she will hold talks with Israeli PM Ehud Olmert and FM Tzipi Livni.

The two largest Israeli newspapers, Maariv and Yediot Aharonot, also speculated that Royal was likely to hold talks with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah. Before arriving in Israel she will stop in Lebanon for talks with Lebanese leaders, both newspapers said.

Hezbollah Leader Nasrallah Set Course for Govt Takeover Prior to Assassination

Here's a Thanksgiving treat that will be new to you unless you're reading this from Beirut. We were able to obtain the full translated remarks of the November 19 speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah about accusations of the majority bloc against his terror group. This of course was a precursor to the assassination earlier this week of the anti-Syrian MP Pierre Gemayel.

Just three weeks ago, the White House released a prophetic warning about outside forces aiming to overthrow the government. As we noted on Wednesday, should two more cabinet members be killed, the Siniora government will collapse and Hezbollah will be poised for a takeover.

HASSAN NASRALLAH:  If we begin by agreeing on the principles of forming a government of national unity, and if there is a problem with the number of the ministers who will serve in this government, I will ask that you tell everyone sitting at the roundtable of national dialogue that we are ready to pull out all Hezbollah ministers from this government, for the purpose of making place for the participation of some other political groups in the government. You can also tell everyone sitting at the roundtable of national dialogue that we are ready to grant full confidence to this new government and to give it our support from the outside.

Anyone who thinks this way cannot be looking for a share or a position of authority or a veto. There are basic matters that we must protect in Lebanon. The existence of all different political groups in this government is one of these basic matters of national guarantee. We are ready to give up our seats in this government in order to make place for the participation of these other political groups - if there is a need for that - because we are merely concerned about the consequences of such moves. We are not so concerned about Hezbollah actually sitting in this government of national unity, as long as it is established.

So we say that this accusation is truly unfounded. It has no real basis. This should be very clear.

If I had to respond to each of these accusations, I would have to say that this one is silly, the other one is strange, the third is ridiculous, and so on. I do wish to make fun of all these people who claim that our purpose in creating the current political confrontation is to do service to the Iranian nuclear program. This is very stupid. It is like claiming that changing the prime minister of the Lebanese Republic will guarantee that the Iranian nuclear project will not be stopped and that keeping the current prime minister can be detrimental to the Iranian nuclear program. This is absolutely naive.

The Iranian nuclear program is being dealt with by the greatest powers in this world. It has many regional and international implications. Lebanon, as a state, has no real role to play amidst this international crisis - not the government of Mr. Siniora, not the governing majority. Not even the government of national unity has anything to do with this international dilemma. None of the political movements or the various political groups calling for or opposing the creation of the government of national unity or any other political party in Lebanon have anything to say about this matter. This is akin to saying that the political maneuvering in Lebanon has something to do with the ozone problem.

Cheney Flying to Saudi Arabia for Talks with King Abdullah on Iraq, Lebanon

Vice President Cheney will travel to Saudi Arabia on Friday for a meeting with King Abdullah to discuss issues of "mutual interest" in the Middle East. Their talks come just ahead of President Bush's trip to Jordan for a meeting with Iraqi PM Nuri al-Maliki on how to speed up the transfer of security responsibilities from U.S. forces to the Baghdad government.

Cheney's talks in Saudi Arabia also are likely to encompass Washington's anxiety about stability and democracy in Lebanon after the assassination this week of cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel, an outspoken critic of Syria.

Second Lebanese MP Targeted by Assassins; Govt Collapse if Two More Killed

Thanks to some excellent reporting and research by Michael Totten, we found that Lebanese MP Pierre Gemayel was not the only anti-Syrian minister targeted for assassination yesterday.

Gunmen in a white Suzuki opened fire on the office of Michel Pharaon, Minister for Parliamentary Affairs. Security forces cordoned off the area and nobody was injured. Pharaon is a Greek-Catholic MP from the bloc of anti-Syrian leader Saad Hariri.

Besides more bloodshed, what's the significance? It turns out that if two more ministers are assassinated, the cabinet is automatically dissolved, because it would lack the two-thirds + 1 it needs to be constitutional.

Bush Stops Short of Accusing Syria in Assassination; Calls for UN Investigation

In Hawaii today, President Bush accused Syria and Iran of fomenting violence and instability in Lebanon, as he condemned the assassination of Lebanese cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel. Secretary Rice meanwhile made a call to Lebanese PM Fuad Siniora amid signs of U.S. concern over the fate of the Beirut government which emerged from Lebanon's 'cedar revolution.'

"Today we saw again the vicious face of those who hate freedom," Bush told troops at an Air Force base. "We strongly condemn the assassination today in Lebanon of Pierre Gemayel." Full remarks here.

Bush did not apportion blame but called for an investigation into "those people and those forces" behind the killing of the anti-Syrian Christian leader. He also reaffirmed U.S. support for the Siniora government in "their efforts to defend their democracy against attempts by Syria, Iran and allies to foment instability and violence in that important country."

Just three weeks ago, the White House released this unusual warning about the stability of the Lebanese government and attempts by outside forces to overthrow it.

Support for a sovereign, democratic, and prosperous Lebanon is a key element of U.S. policy in the Middle East. We are therefore increasingly concerned by mounting evidence that the Syrian and Iranian governments, Hizballah, and their Lebanese allies are preparing plans to topple Lebanon's democratically-elected government led by Prime Minister Siniora.

Any attempt to destabilize Lebanon's democratically-elected government through such tactics as manufactured demonstrations and violence, or by physically threatening its leaders would, at the very least, be a clear violation of Lebanon's sovereignty and United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1559, 1680, and 1701.

There are indications that one goal of the Syrian plan is to prevent the current Lebanese government from approving the statute for an international tribunal that would try those accused of involvement in former Prime Minister Hariri's assassination. Any such effort to sideline the tribunal will fail, however, for the international community can proceed with establishing it no matter what happens internally in Lebanon. The United States is committed to working with its international partners and the legitimate Government of Lebanon to ensure that the tribunal is quickly established and that all those responsible for the assassinations of Rafiq Hariri and other Lebanese patriots since 2005 are brought to justice.

Some are speculating that this assassination was the opening shot of just the type of overthrow attempt that the White House described. Only time will tell. What we do find interesting though is while Syria is doing its best to look good in the eyes of the international community by working to end the violence in Iraq with one hand, the other hand is busy assassinating anti-Syrian leaders in Lebanon.

Lebanon in Turmoil: Prominent Anti-Syrian MP Assassinated in Christian Area

Lebanon's Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel, an anti-Syrian Christian leader and the son of former President Amin Gemayel, was killed by assassins near Beirut on Tuesday. He was a member of the Christian Phalange Party. Gunmen opened fire as his convoy drove through the Christian Sin el-Fil neighborhood. Gemayel was rushed to hospital where he later died of his wounds.

The Gemayel family, true to its long-standing policy, had once fostered the alliance between Lebanese Maronites and Israel and is presently one of the strongest supporters of the March-14 anti-Syrian alliance. The head of the March-14 alliance, Saad Hariri, son of assassinated former PM Rafik Hariri, immediately placed responsibility for the assassination on Syria.

Lebanon is in the throes of a political storm pitting the anti-Syrian ruling majority against the pro-Damascus opposition. The political tension threatens to spill into street confrontations. Lebanon's PM Fuad Siniora said on Tuesday his depleted cabinet was legitimate despite the resignation of six pro-Syrian ministers, and warned that any anti-government protests could turn violent.

Pro-Syrian Hezbollah and its allies are preparing to take to the streets to topple Siniora's government, which they accuse of being allied with the U.S., arguing that it has lost its legitimacy since Shiite Muslims are no longer represented.

Since the Hariri assassination in February 2005, the following anti-Syrian political figures have been assassinated:

• June 2, 2005 - Samir Kassir, journalist opposed to Syria's role in Lebanon, is killed in Beirut by bomb in his car. June 21 - Former Communist Party leader and critic of Syria George Hawi is killed in Beirut by bomb in his car.
• July 12, 2005 - Car bomb wounds caretaker Defense Minister Elias al-Murr and kills one person in Christian area north of Beirut.
• September 25, 2005 - May Chidiac, a Christian television journalist critical of Syria, is seriously wounded by bomb in her car.
• December 12, 2005 - Gebran Tueni, staunchly anti-Syrian member of parliament and Lebanese newspaper magnate is killed by a car bomb in Beirut. An unknown group, "Strugglers for the Unity and Freedom of the Levant", claims responsibility.
• November 21, 2006 - Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel is killed by gunmen as his convoy drives through the Christian Sin el-Fil neighborhood of Beirut.

World reaction:

• British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett: "Clearly we condemn it. We are dismayed. There are enough problems in Lebanon already. Certainly this is the kind of step that can only increase tension in the region rather than lead to greater peace."
• Israeli FM Tzipi Livni: "It's too early to say ... of course the negative role of Syria in Lebanon is not something new or top secret."
• U.S. Ambassador to the UN John Bolton: "Even as the Security Council considers the need to endorse the tribunal, to try the -- prosecution of those who committed the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri, we are confronted with what appears to be yet another terrorist assassination in Beirut. It's a very great tragedy. Certainly our thoughts are with the family of Pierre Gemayel."

IDF Proceeds with Inquiry into Cluster Munitions During Israel-Hezbollah War

Within the framework of a recent inquiry into the use of cluster munitions throughout the Israel-Hezbollah war, questions were raised regarding the full implementation of the orders of the IDF General Staff concerning the use of cluster munitions. The results of the inquiry were presented to the IDF Chief of Staff, who, after consultation with the Military Advocate General, appointed Maj. Gen. Gershon Ha'cohen to lead an inquiry into the circumstances of the use of cluster munitions. He has been ordered to look into the implementation of all orders and instructions regarding the use of cluster type munitions in the course of the conflict.

It is important to clarify that the use of cluster munitions is not prohibited under customary international law; nor is the use of this particular kind of munitions prohibited by the Convention on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Certain Conventional Weapons which May be Deemed to be Excessively Injurious or to Have Indiscriminate Effects (CCW), to which Israel is party. This weapon is used by a number of states and is, as aforementioned, both lawful and legitimate. Clearly, as in the case of all arms, the use of cluster munitions must conform to the rules of warfare.

It should also be noted, that the findings of the inquiry show that prior to firing cluster munitions, safety warnings were given to the civilian population, recommending them to leave certain areas. The findings also show that the firing of cluster munitions was directed only at legitimate military targets which had been identified as sites from which Katyusha rockets were being launched.

Sectarian Violence in Lebanon? Al-Qaeda Urges Sunnis to Confront Hezbollah

A statement posted Friday on an website used by al-Qaeda in Iraq called upon Lebanese Sunnis to confront Hezbollah -a Shiite terror group- which it accused of wanting to dominate the country. "We call on our brothers in Lebanon ... to face up to Hezbollah and the hatred of the rafidha (a pejorative term for Shia Muslims) and prepare for a confrontation," appealed the statement from the "Mujahedin of Lebanon".

The tone and wording of the statement is similar to that of messages from al-Qaeda in Iraq. The statement accused Hezbollah of being under the control of Syria, which it charged had opened the door to Shiite Iranian influence in the country.

"Today they want to dominate Lebanon in its totality, allying themselves with the crusaders in Lebanon, to definitively eliminate the Sunni community. The rafidha should know we are ready to combat them,"said the statement, which also slammed Iran and Syria.

IDF Completes Transfer of Minefield Records; Key 1701 Requirement Fulfilled

The IDF has completed handing over the minefield records for southern Lebanon to the United Nations Mine Action Coordination Centre, Southern Lebanon (MACCSL) as required by section 8 of Security Council Resolution 1701.

UNIFIL Commander Maj. Gen. Alain Pelligrini has also confirmed that all minefield records available for southern Lebanon and areas north of the Litani River have been received from the IDF.

Hezbollah Ministers Submit Resignations from Govt; PM Siniora Won't Accept

Lebanese ministers from Hezbollah and its ally, Amal, have resigned from the country’s government. Their resignations followed the failure on Saturday of the latest round of talks on the creation of a broader unity government in Lebanon, including far more power for Hezbollah. Now, senior government officials say there is little hope of their resumption in the near future.

Hezbollah is demanding a third of cabinet posts – what it sees as a fair prize for its offensive against Israel during the summer and what it sees as its achievements in "defeating" the IDF. Hezbollah has issued repeated warnings that if its political demands are not met it will take to the streets of Beirut.

Lebanese PM Fouad Siniora has refused to accept the resignations and "called on them to commit their responsibilities," according to the statement. The move by the pro-Syrian ministers also came two days before a cabinet meeting to endorse the UN draft text of the international tribunal to try former PM Rafik Hariri's killers.