Vital Perspective

British Official: Efforts Underway for Sanctions Following Collapse of Iran Talks

The P-5 + 1 is preparing to draft UN sanctions against Iran given the failure of high level talks so far to yield an Iranian promise to halt sensitive atomic work, a senior British official said today. He said EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, trying to coax Iran into halting enrichment, reported back to EU countries and the U.S. that top Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani had given a clear "no".

"We are intensifying preparatory efforts for what should be in a resolution," the British official said. "Margaret Beckett was talking to her counterparts over the weekend ... Unless there is a sudden and unexpected change of heart by the Iranians, we can expect this to move to New York in the coming week or so."

"Solana reported that Larijani had made clear to him last week that Iran was not prepared to resume suspension. That's the position that President Ahmadinejad and others had been stating in public. It came through clearly from Larijani to Solana and Solana has accordingly reported back," the official said.

P-5 + 1 Back Down from Consequences for Iran, New Compliance Deadline Set

With Iran still resisting a freeze on its nuclear activities, the P-5 + 1 have decided to set yet another deadline --the fourth in as many months-- in hopes that Iran will finally agree to terms paving the way for substantive talks on its nuclear program.

Under the plan, reached by Secretary Rice and her counterparts over a late-night dinner Tuesday, Iran will have until early October to agree to suspend its nuclear activities as the negotiations take place, diplomats said. At the meeting, Rice backed off the U.S. demand that the Security Council begin imposing sanctions over Iran's failure to meet previous deadlines.

Originally, the P-5 + 1 offered to discuss an array of incentives with Iran if it froze its uranium enrichment program and demanded an answer by the end of June. That slipped to July, and then the end of August was set as the deadline in a Security Council resolution. American officials believe the deadline of the first week of October is firm, but at least one European diplomat suggested the possibility of slippage remains.

Originally, Iran was told that no talks could start until it suspended the nuclear program. Officials are discussing a change in sequence that would have talks begin without the U.S., then having Iran declare its willingness to suspend its program at the same time that action in the Security Council is halted, and then having the U.S. join the talks once the suspension is verified. Rice has said that she would attend the first meeting as the U.S. representative to the talks.

Sr. Administration Officials Discuss UN General Assembly Plans for Bush, Rice

This afternoon we got glimpse into President Bush's and Secretary Rice's plans for the opening of the 61st UN General Assembly next week. As most people are aware, Bush will address the General Assembly on September 19 and is expected to focus on events in the Middle East, on Darfur and the democracy agenda.

A senior administration official speaking on the condition of anonymity in a conference call earlier today said that among other meetings before his speech not relevant to our focus, Bush "will have a bilateral meeting with the prime minister of Malaysia. This is important, aside from the substance of what they will discuss, I think, to demonstrate Malaysia is a democratic country with a moderate form of Islamic government, and the idea is here -- that is, Malaysia is a very good demonstration of how Islam and democracy are fully compatible concepts."

The speech itself on September 19 "will lay out his positive vision for the Middle East and the bright democratic future that we see for the Middle East in contradistinction to some who have an almost backward-looking vision for that region." Immediately following the speech Bush will meet with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani.

Rice will have a much more extended trip to New York. The day before Bush's speech, Rice will attend the Iraq compact conference hosted by Secretary-General Kofi Annan. On the 19th, she will accompany Bush to meetings with French President Jacques Chirac on a series of issues related to the Middle East, namely Lebanon, Iran, Sudan-Darfur and, of course, Israel-Palestinian issues. There will also be a meeting with Annan before his speech, and a dinner with the foreign ministers of the P-5 plus Germany and Italy afterwards.

The day after the speech when Bush heads back to Washington, Rice will attend an important Quartet meeting on the Middle East peace process. The following day she'll meet with NATO foreign ministers to discuss the situation in Afghanistan in preparation for the NATO summit in November. On Friday she's scheduled for another P-5 meeting as well as a meeting of foreign ministers and political directors from the G-8. At some point in the week she'll meet with Talabani as well.

Zawahiri Claims Algerian GSPC Joined al-Qaeda, Threatens France with Attacks

Ayman al-Zawahiri claimed in a video message that the radical Algerian Islamist group GSPC had joined al-Qaeda and warned it would be a "thorn in the throat" of the West. Some describe the GSPC as "one of Washington's greatest concerns."

"Osama bin Laden has told me to announce to Muslims that the GSPC (the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat) has joined al-Qaeda," Zawahiri said, according to extracts of the video issued this week to coincide with the fifth anniversary of 9/11. "This should be a source of chagrin, frustration and sadness for the apostates [of the regime in Algeria], the treacherous sons of [former colonial power] France."

He urges the group to become "a bone in the throat of the American and French crusaders... We pray to God that they will be a thorn in the side of the American and French crusaders and their allies."

The GSPC, created in 1998 by dissidents from the Armed Islamic Group (GIA), rejects Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's policy of reconciliation and is regarded as the only radical Islamist movement left in the country capable of causing serious trouble. The GIA was largely dismantled by the security services in January.

Regional diplomats, security sources and U.S. officials believe the GSPC and its allies have been running mobile camps in the Sahara, teaching recruits guerrilla tactics before sending them home as "sleepers" to await further instructions.

On Thursday, France's interior ministry said Zawahiri's comments "confirmed the high level of threat against our country." Ministry officials add that al-Qaeda had announced in a statement three years ago that the GSPC was one of its components and there have since been other threats issued against France.

EU, Iran to Meet; Foreign Ministers to Discuss Sanctions at General Assembly

Tomorrow, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana will meet with Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani. Officials from delegations familiar with the first meeting said Iran had made an unofficial, tentative offer to freeze nuclear enrichment for up to two months. However, the Bush administration on Tuesday dismissed suggestions that Iran might enact such a suspension.

The foreign ministers of major powers will meet on the sidelines of the General Assembly in New York next week to discuss moving forward with possible sanctions against Tehran if there has been no breakthrough by then. However, China and Russia, plus a number of European nations with significant trade with Iran, are wary of imposing sanctions and advocate giving more time to seek a possible compromise.

U.S. Pushing for Immediate Talks on Draft Resolution Language for Sanctions

The U.S. wants the Security Council to begin talks next week on a draft resolution that sets out sanctions against Iran for its nuclear activities, Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns said today as more talks on Iran with the P-5 + 1 continue on Monday.

"The American view is that following these discussions on Monday and perhaps some others early next week, we should move this to the Security Council and draft a (sanctions) resolution," he told reporters.

But France said there was no point in rushing the Iran issue back to the Council without any certainty that it would result in a decision. "There is not much point in going to the Security Council to display our divisions," Foreign Ministry spokesman Jean-Baptiste Mattei said.

Burns, however, made it clear that Washington wanted to move fast and hoped there would be a draft resolution ready for the start of the General Assembly the week of September 18. An EU memorandum earlier this year said sanctions could include trade restrictions, freezing of assets and visa bans for officials, diplomats and scientists.

Meanwhile, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana has said that no UN sanctions will be imposed on Iran as long as talks continue on Tehran's controversial nuclear program. Solana is scheduled to meet Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani in an undisclosed location tomorrow.

Iran Cancels Meeting with EU Ahead of Berlin Meeting on Sanctions Strategy

Talks on Iran's nuclear program scheduled for today have been canceled by a senior Iranian envoy, moving Tehran a step closer to sanctions after it defied a Security Council deadline to freeze uranium enrichment. It was the third deadline in two weeks that has passed with Iran failing to declare it has stopped its enrichment program. European negotiators had persuaded the UN to allow an extension given what Tehran said was its preparedness to enter into serious talks.

The talks were to be a final attempt to see if there was any common ground to start negotiations between Iran and the P-5 + 1, but while the EU's Javier Solana had been ready to fly to the Austrian capital at short notice, the talks had been left hanging by uncertainty over whether Iranian nuclear envoy Ali Larijani would come.

"We will not have the meeting today in Vienna," Ali Ashgar Soltanieh, the chief Iranian envoy to the IAEA said. "Both sides are arranging for a couple of days later."

In Berlin tomorrow, senior negotiators from the P-5 + 1 will meet to plan their strategy on a sanctions package. In a further sign of Tehran's defiance, Iran's parliament took the first step Tuesday toward blocking international inspection of nuclear installations in case of sanctions. The measure would need approval by other bodies before it could take effect.

UPDATE 09/06 @ 14:05: Iranian state television reports that Larijani will hold talks with Solana on Thursday in Spain. Solana's office, however, said he was due to travel to Copenhagen for talks with Danish officials and would not return to Brussels until Friday afternoon. Solana's aides have said that he was ready to change plans at the last minute if needed.

France, Saudi Arabia Agree to Boost Defense Cooperation, Deliver Equipment

France and Saudi Arabia agreed to set up technical committees to boost defense links during a visit by French Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie to Riyadh. Alliot-Marie met for more than an hour with King Abdullah in the Red Sea city of Jeddah after talks with Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz, who is also defense minister. The discussions also focused on the situation in Lebanon and Iran's nuclear program.

"We decided to set up bilateral technical committees to boost defense cooperation, including the delivery of French military equipment to Saudi Arabia as envisaged in July" when two military accords were signed during a visit by Prince Sultan to Paris. The committees will also handle issues such as "training military personnel and technology transfers," he said.

The military deals signed in July paved the way for sales of French tanks and fighter jets worth billions of dollars to Riyadh, the French presidency said at the time.

EU Going Wobbly on Pursuit of Sanctions, Agrees to Hold More Talks With Iran

EU nations are doing their best to undermine Security Council Resolution 1696 by stalling on the intention to implement robust sanctions against a defiant Iran. Today the EU agreed to hold additional talks with Iran to try to clarify their nuclear stance within two weeks. During a meeting with UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, Iranian FM Manouchehr Mottaki and nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said it wanted fresh negotiations on the issue.

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana will meet Larijani next week to try to clear up 'ambiguities' in Tehran's reply to the incentive package. "If the meeting goes well and Iran accepts the philosophy of the cooperation project we presented to it in June, I think we will be able to start a more formal negotiation," French Sunday newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche quoted Solana as saying. It was widely reported that when Solana presented Iran the incentive package back in June, he withheld the presentation of the disincentives for noncompliance.

Slovenian FM Dimitrij Rupel said after the 25 EU ministers discussed the Iranian issue in Finland on Saturday: "We give Solana two weeks for his clarification talks." But Solana told reporters: "There's no deadline, whenever we finish ... We are going to start in the coming days and I hope that it will be very short. We don't need many meetings."

The dangerous foot dragging by the EU in the face of the legally binding Chapter VII Security Council resolution is exceptionally troubling. UNSCR 1696 says that the Security Council: "Expresses its intention, in the event that Iran has not by that date complied with this resolution, then to adopt appropriate measures under Article 41 of Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations to persuade Iran to comply with this resolution and the requirements of the IAEA, and underlines that further decisions will be required should such additional measures be necessary;"

Article 41 of Chapter VII says: "The Security Council may decide what measures not involving the use of armed force are to be employed to give effect to its decisions, and it may call upon the Members of the United Nations to apply such measures. These may include complete or partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraphic, radio, and other means of communication, and the severance of diplomatic relations."

Clearly, Iran is in violation of UNSCR 1696 and the IAEA report confirms that. When the Resolution was adopted, the P-5 expressed its intention to do so in the event that Iran was not in compliance. With the condition precedent met, the Security Council is required to pursue the condition subsequent -- sanctions -- against Iran. The P-5 + 1 will meet in Berlin on September 7 to discuss the way forward, and the U.S. will be represented by Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns. We hope that Britain and France will continue to fulfill their obligations as permanent members of the Security Council.

IAEA Reports on Iran's Continued Defiance; UNSC Must Swiftly Enact Sanctions

We've just received a copy of the IAEA report being distributed to diplomats at the UN today on Iran's nuclear program. Read the whole IAEA report exclusively here on Vital Perspective. As Sean McCormack, spokesman for the State Department said today, over the past three months Iran has "continued along the pathway to developing a nuclear weapon, continued in their defiance of the international community."

The IAEA report details the progress that Iran has achieved, noting the continued testing of P-1 centrifuges with UF₆ and the installation of a second 164-centrifuge cascade. It also details Iran's continued stonewalling and lack of cooperation with the IAEA. According to the report, Iran has not made any new information available on their P-1 and P-2 centrifuge programs. Iran has not provided a copy of a 15-page document describing procedures for the reduction of UF₆ to uranium metal, which is critical to understanding the full scope of offers made by 'foreign intermediaries.' Iran has not been forthcoming with clarification on is plutonium separation experiments. Iran has not issued multiple entry visas to weapons inspectors on time. Iran refuses to discuss Project Green Salt, address verification and transparency issues, suspend enrichment related activities or act in accordance with the Additional Protocol. As a result, the IAEA still cannot make a determination as to the nature of the Iranian nuclear program.

It is crucial that the Security Council move swiftly and decisively to enact sanctions against the regime. Unfortunately, it looks as if John Bolton is going to have his work cut out for him. The Chinese ambassador said today that there was still more time for dialogue with Iran, as opposed to sanctions. Responding to that issue today, Bolton said "the foreign minister of China, some months ago, agreed with the foreign ministers of the other permanent members of the Security Council in Germany that if Iran did not fully suspend its uranium enrichment activity they would support coming to the Council to seek economic sanctions.  And I would assume that the governments in question would live up to the commitment that their foreign ministers have made."