Vital Perspective

IDF Official: Iran Will Have Nukes 'In Near Future'; GCC Contemplates Program

MediaLine reports that Maj.-Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky, Israel's deputy chief of General Staff told a conference of mayors on Friday that Iran would have nuclear weapons "in the near future." Kaplinsky warned of the danger of the deepening alliance among Hezbollah, Syria, Iran and Hamas, saying that, "The deeper the connection between [them]… the more we need to worry." He said Syria was continuing to rearm Hezbollah while both Hezbollah and Syria prepared for another round of warfare against Israel. Reports in Israeli media indicate that the army is anticipating the possibility of a resumption of the Lebanon war next summer.

Meanwhile, Arab states in the Gulf announced at the end of a two-day GCC summit in Riyadh today that they were considering a shared nuclear program "for peaceful purposes" as Iran continues its nuclear ambitions. The GCC is comprised of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman.

Bahrain: Regime Charged with Irregularities, Challengers Face Punishment

With parliamentary elections a week away in Bahrain, MediaLine reports that an election official has warned of a clamp-down on candidates who challenge the veracity of rivals or the elections themselves. If found guilty of such a challenge without adequate proof, offenders could face six months in jail. Opposition parties are taking part in this year’s election, having boycotted the last poll four years ago. They are accusing the regime of gerrymander and other election-related irregularities. Election officials say all candidates will be able to observe the voting and counting.

Yemeni PM to Ask Donor Conference for $48 Billion to Help GCC Membership

Yemeni PM Abdel Kader Bajammal says that his country needs $48 billion over a decade for upgrades in infrastructure, combating poverty and unemployment, and boosting education in order to catch up with oil-rich Gulf Arab economies.

Ministers from Yemen and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE discussed preparations for a Yemen donors' meeting slated for November 15 and 16 in London being held in cooperation with the World Bank in an effort to muster funds for development.

Yemeni planning and international cooperation minister Abdel Karim Al Arhabi was quoted last month as saying that Yemen would ask donors for $10 billion in aid over five years to help prepare it for GCC membership.

The only country in the Arabian Peninsula without direct access to the Gulf and its only republic, Yemen has for a decade been knocking at the GCC's door. The GCC partners, which forged their alliance in 1981, have been in no hurry to admit the poor country of some 20 million into their ranks. However, in December 2001, Yemen won GCC approval to join some of the bloc's councils - in the fields of education, social affairs, health, and sports.

Proliferation Security Initiative Exercise Has 25 Nations Miles Off Iranian Coast

Earlier today, 25 nations took part in a U.S.-led naval exercise in waters not far from Iran aimed at training forces to block the transport of weapons of mass destruction and related equipment. Italy, the U.S., Australia, Britain, France and Bahrain deployed ships and personnel to the drill, part of President Bush's Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI). Other countries, including the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan and South Korea, sent observers.

About 20 miles from Iranian waters in the Persian Gulf, Italian and Bahraini marines sped through the water in small inflatable bloats and boarded a British vessel, the RFA Brambleleaf, which was carrying mock nuclear detonators. Marines armed with machine guns guarded the crew as another team searched the vessel.

Iran said it was not concerned about the exercise but warned those participating not to destabilize the region. "Given the amicable ties among countries of the region and the powerful presence of ... Iran as standard bearer of peace, justice and security, there is no room for any concern," the official IRNA news agency quoted government spokesman Gholamhossein Elham as saying.

Several Middle Eastern countries have endorsed PSI principles this year after visits by U.S. officials to the region were stepped up, a State Department official who declined to be identified said. Sunni Gulf Arab states have traditionally been wary of Iran's Shiite imperialistic intentions in the region.

One major player that was not present was Russia, perhaps because of President Vladimir Putin's desire for further talks on Iran's nuclear program. Russia is not convinced there is a case for tougher sanctions against Iran and is at present time building an atomic reactor in Iran. If you're not convinced that Tehran is pursuing nuclear weapons, then you probably wouldn't see the utility today's PSI exercise.

Bahrain's Broadway Features "I Hate Israel" Production Praising Hezbollah

A play entitled "Ana Bakrah Israel" (I Hate Israel) - a name shared with an Egyptian song that caused a diplomatic fiasco in 2001 - has created a stir in Bahrain. The play, which debuted Monday night, features Bahraini and Kuwaiti actors lashing out at Israel and applauding Hezbollah.

"This play is dedicated to Hassan Nasrallah, the general secretary of Hezbollah, for his victory on our nemesis, the Zionist entity. As actors, our talents are the tools that we have at our disposal to express the views of the public and to show support for the resistance," said producer Mamdooh Abbas Al-Saleh.

In 2001, Egyptian singer Shaaban Abdel-Rehim released a song carrying the same title as the play. The same year, Kuwaiti actor Daoud Hussein released a serial entitled "Sharoniat: Tales of Terror," which depicted former Israeli PM Ariel Sharon as a terrorist. Both the song and show drew strong criticism from Israel and the West.

Career Civil Servant to Become First Female Elected to Bahrain's Parliament

A career civil servant will soon become the first female to serve as an elected member of Bahrain's parliament. Lateefa al-Geood was the only candidate who registered to run in her region, meaning she has already technically won, Bahrain's official news agency said. Eighteen women are among 221 candidates vying for seats in the 40-member assembly in the November 25 vote.

Thirty-one women ran in municipal and parliamentary elections in 2002, but failed to win any seats. Bahraini women won the right to vote a year earlier as part of a national referendum that turned the small Gulf state into a constitutional monarchy. Six women already serve in Bahrain's upper chamber of parliament, but they were appointed, not elected.

Al-Geood holds a bachelor's degree in business administration from Helwan University in Egypt and a master's degree in financial management from the University of Nottingham in England. She currently works in Bahrain's Ministry of Finance, as the head of the human-resources department.

Costa Rica Moves Embassy from J'lem, Resumes Relations with Arab States

Costa Rica has resumed diplomatic relations with Kuwait, Bahrain and Yemen after FM Bruno Stagno's Friday talks with his counterparts from the three Arab countries in New York. The diplomatic moves came after Costa Rica announced on August 16 that it would move its embassy in Israel from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv.

During a meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Stagno and Kuwaiti FM Sheikh Mohammad al-Sabah al-Salem al-Sabah also discussed UN reforms, the race for the next UN Secretary-General, and other issues. Sheikh Mohammad said Kuwait supports Costa Rica's bid for a seat on the Security Council for 2008-2009, and the political consultation mechanisms between Latin American nations and the 22-member Arab League.

Stagno also met with Syrian FM Walid al-Muallem iand exchanged views on resuming the diplomatic relations.

Bush's UN Speech Focused on More Hopeful World Beyond Terror, Extremism

Earlier today, President Bush addressed the UN General Assembly and spoke about a more hopeful world beyond terror and extremism - where ordinary men and women are free to determine their own destiny, the voices of moderation are empowered, and the extremists are marginalized by the peaceful majority.

Bush said the principles animating this future are in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights' statement that the "equal and inalienable rights of all members of the human family is the foundation of freedom, justice and peace in the world." In the nearly six decades since that document was approved, we have seen the forces of freedom and moderation transform entire continents.

• Some of the changes in the broader Middle East have been dramatic - more than 50 million people have been given a voice in the UN for the first time in decades. Afghanistan's seat in the UN is now held by the freely elected government of Afghanistan. Iraq's seat in the UN is now held by a democratic government that embodies the aspirations of the Iraqi people.
• Some of the changes in the Middle East are happening gradually, but these changes are real. Algeria has held its first competitive presidential election, and the military remained neutral. The UAE recently announced that half the seats in its Federal National Council will be chosen by elections. Kuwait held elections in which women were allowed to vote and run for office for the first time. Citizens have voted in municipal elections in Saudi Arabia, in parliamentary elections in Jordan and Bahrain, and in multiparty presidential elections in Yemen and Egypt.

Obviously, many have argued that these democratic changes are destabilizing the Middle East - but as he has said before, Bush said the stability we thought we saw in the Middle East was a mirage. For decades, millions of men and women in this region have been trapped in oppression and hopelessness. These conditions left a generation disillusioned and made the region a breeding ground for extremism. He called on every civilized nation - including those in the Muslim world - to support those in the region who are offering a more hopeful alternative.

Bush spoke directly to people across the broader Middle East and said clearly: America desires peace.

• To the people of Iraq: We will not abandon you. Nearly 12 million Iraqis braved the car bombers and assassins last December to vote in free elections, and we will not abandon you in your struggle to build a free nation. America and its coalition partners will continue to stand with Iraq's democratic government, help secure the international assistance and investment Iraq needs to create jobs and opportunity, and train Iraqis who have stepped forward to fight the enemies of freedom. In return, Iraq's leaders must make the difficult choices to bring security and prosperity.
• To the people of Afghanistan: We will help you defeat the extremists who want to destroy Afghanistan's young democracy. Since overthrowing the Taliban, Afghanistan has chosen its leaders in free elections and built a democratic government. Today, forces from more than 40 countries - including members of the NATO Alliance - are bravely serving side by side with the people of Afghanistan against the extremists. We will help you defeat these enemies and build a free Afghanistan that will never again oppress you or be a safe haven for terrorists.
• To the people of Lebanon: We see your suffering, and the world is helping you rebuild your country and deal with the armed extremists who are undermining your democracy by acting as a state within a state. Last year, the people of Lebanon inspired the world when they drove Syrian forces from their country and re-established democracy. Since then, they have been tested by the fighting that began with Hezbollah's unprovoked attacks on Israel. The UN has passed a good resolution that has authorized an international force, led by France and Italy, to help restore Lebanese sovereignty over Lebanese soil. For many years, Lebanon was a model of democracy, pluralism, and openness in the region - and it will be again.
• To the people of Iran: The United States respects you and your country. The greatest obstacle to a better future for Iran is that its rulers have chosen to deny the people of Iran liberty and use their nation's resources to fund terrorists, fuel extremism, and pursue nuclear weapons. The UN has passed a clear resolution requiring that the regime in Tehran meet its international obligations. Iran must abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions. The world has no objection to Iran's pursuit of a truly peaceful nuclear power program. We are working toward a diplomatic solution to this crisis, and we look to the day when the people of Iran can live in freedom - and America and Iran can be good friends and close partners in the cause of peace.
• To the people of Syria: Your government must choose a better way forward. Syria is home to a great people with a proud tradition of learning and commerce. Today, Syria's rulers have allowed the country to become a crossroad for terrorists, and are turning the country into a tool of Iran, increasing Syria's isolation from the world. Syria's government can stop this growing isolation and create a more hopeful future for its country by ending its support for terror, living in peace with its neighbors, and opening the way to a better life for the Syrian people.

Near the end of the speech, Bush spent a good deal of time focusing on peace between Israel and the Palestinians. He said that by supporting the forces of democracy and moderation, the world can help Israelis and Palestinians build a more hopeful future and achieve peace.

• Bush declared that President Abbas is committed to peace and to his people's aspirations for a state of their own and PM Olmert is also committed to peace and has said he intends to meet with President Abbas to make real progress on the outstanding issues between them.
• Bush continues to wait for Hamas to implement their platform of ending corruption and improving the lives of the Palestinian peole. The world has sent a clear message to the leaders of Hamas: Serve the interests of the Palestinian people, abandon terror, recognize Israel, honor agreements, and work for peace.
• Bush has directed Secretary Rice to lead a diplomatic effort to engage moderate leaders across the region, help the Palestinians reform their security services, and support Israeli and Palestinian leaders in their efforts to come together to resolve their differences. British PM Tony Blair has indicated that Britain will work with partners in Europe to help strengthen the governing institutions of an effective Palestinian administration. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt have made clear they are willing to contribute the diplomatic and financial assistance necessary to help these efforts succeed.

Bahrain Declares Itself Ready for Key UN Role as General Assembly President

Tawfeeq Al Mansour, the Bahraini Ambassador to the UN, says his country is gearing up to play a vital role at the UN this year. "We have a very busy time ahead of us and this is a very important time for the kingdom, especially as it presides over the General Assembly," Al Mansour said yesterday. Last week, Bahraini lawyer, arbitrator and diplomat Shaikha Haya bint Rashid Al Khalifa took over the presidency of the General Assembly and will hold the post for a year.

One of the most important roles for Shaikha Haya will be helping to choose a Secretary-General for the UN as Kofi Annan's term comes to an end this year. The General Assembly and the Security Council will have this responsibility placed on their shoulders, as the race for nominations continues between global players. Al Mansour said Bahrain would also be busy discussing ways to implement the global terrorism strategy.

On Friday at 17:15, FM Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa will set out Bahrain's stance and the role it plays in global issues and its impact on local, regional and international affairs in a speech to the General Assembly. Al Mansour said that while in New York, Shaikh Khalid will represent all Arab countries at the Ministerial Meeting at the Security Council. The meeting was called to press for progress in the Middle East peace process.

UN Human Rights Council to Meet on 'Gross Human Rights Violations by Israel'

Late yesterday, we'd heard that the Tunisian government, which chairs the group of Arab States, had requested a special session of the new UN Human Rights Council to "consider and take action on the gross human rights violations by Israel in Lebanon, including the Qana massacre, county-wide targeting of innocent civilians, and destruction of vital civilian infrastructure."

We've now been able to confirm that the request has been made, and that the session is in the logistical planning stages. The countries signing on to the Tunisian request were Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Algeria, Morocco, Jordan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Senegal, Pakistan, China, Russia, Cuba, South Africa and Azerbaijan.