German intelligence reports that Iran is unlikely to be able to develop a nuclear bomb before 2015. The estimate falls within the 3-10 year range of forecasts given by most international experts. "According to the current rate of enrichment, the Islamic Republic will not have sufficient amounts of highly enriched uranium with which to build atomic weapons before 2010. For a nuclear bomb we are looking at around 2015," said BND head Ernst Uhrlau.
There's just one problem with that intelligence estimate. It ignores the fact that once you have the knowledge, the development of the actual weapon is not a matter of if, but when. Iran will exercise all efforts to get the bomb. The international community must take care of this crisis as if the first nuclear test is scheduled for tomorrow.
A nuclear weapon is one of the main tools Iran needs to become the leader of the Muslim world. Egypt is threatened by this. Gulf states are scared to death. From Saudi Arabia to the west, they are all scared.
If you doubt that Iran would use a nuclear weapon or sell it to terrorists, ask yourself this: do you trust a state that sent children rushing to the front lines to detonate land mines and absorb artillery fire to benefit the military in the Iran-Iraq war? Make no mistake, a nuclear bomb will not be a tool that sits on the shelf.
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