In another Vital Perspective exclusive, we've obtained the latest report on Iran by IAEA D-G Mohamed ElBaradei. It is extremely negative for Iran and puts hopes that Iran will agree to the latest diplomatic offerings into serious doubt.
The world is waiting to find out what Iran thinks of the P-5 + 1 incentive package to suspend uranium enrichment and reprocessing -- President Bush said earlier this week that he was encouraged by their initial response, but that optimism will surely be dashed when this report comes to light. On the very day that EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana presented the package in Iran, the regime began a new enrichment program in what amounts to a dismissal of international concerns and diplomatic efforts. We may not have a copy of the incentive package yet, but you can see the next best thing here in one of the final drafts of several possible elements to go into the deal.
ElBaradei specifically notes that on June 6, the day the package was presented, Iran resumed feeding UF6 gas (the feedstock for nuclear fuel) into a 164-centrifuge cascade.
It's also entirely obvious to the IAEA that they are being completely stonewalled by the regime. The report makes the following observations:
- In the April 28 report, the IAEA said that they are continuing to investigate highly enriched uranium found at locations where centrifuge components had been manufactured, used and/or stored -- there has been no further progress on the resolution of this contamination issue;
- Iran has not provided any new information on its P-1 and P-2 centrifuge programs, nor has Iran bothered to respond to a written inquiry from the IAEA seeking clarification after statements from the regime that research was being conducted on new types of centrifuges;
- Iran has failed to provide the IAEA with a 15-page document describing the procedures for the reduction of UF6 (uranium hexafluoride gas, which then can be enriched to create nuclear bombs) to uranium metal and the casting and machining of enriched depleted uranium metal into hemispheres;
- Iran has not responded to the IAEA's request for clarifications concerning, and access to carry out environmental sampling of, equipment and materials related to the Physics Research Centre (PHRC);
- Iran has denied the IAEA access to the former Head of the PHRC;
- Iran has declined to discuss remote monitoring of the centrifuges at the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant, "an important verification measure in certain enrichment facilities."
The constructive attitude from Iran is clear. Starting a new enrichment program on the same day that the incentive package is presented is not a coincidence, it is a message that Iran refuses to be a party to any international efforts that require suspension of enrichment programs. Additionally, we see countless examples of Iran ignoring requests from the IAEA so key determinations can be made.
If and when Iran demonstrates that it is not prepared to take the negotiated path, the next step must be strong action in the Security Council, namely a Chapter VII resolution.
UPDATE 6/8 @ 18:41: Brit Hume just reported on Fox News that Iran acted in direct defiance of ElBaradei: "IAEA Director General Mohammed ElBaradei' private advice to Tehran-- that the Iranians could create a better climate for negotiations with the west-- if they would refrain from restocking their enrichment program."
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