Tehran Five Minutes From Tel Aviv

The dramatic upset in the Palestinian elections this week is a defining strategic moment in the Middle East, which some have compared to the impact of the Six Day War in 1967. As we wrote last week, the Hamas victory has the potential for creating the first Sunni jihadist state in the Middle East, ironically aligned with Shiite Tehran. The Hamas victory will likely embolden Iran and increase Tehran’s nuclear posturing, support of Syria and Hezbollah, and leverage over the coalition forces in Iraq. At the same time, Israel now faces an Iran-backed terrorist threat on three fronts: Hezbollah to the north and a Hamas-ruled West Bank and Gaza. Iran’s "pincer movement" places Tehran five minutes from Tel Aviv.

Next week, in back-to-back summits in London, the West will face the urgent test of responding to the dual threats of an resurging Hamas and a nuclear Iran.

As for Hamas, there are three basic scenarios. The first, to remain openly terrorist and continue calling for Israel’s destruction (unlikely). The second, to change its spots and go  liberal (patently absurd). The third and most likely scenario, to recede into the background and hide behind the fig leaf of Mahmoud Abbas and a Westernized prime minister, such as Salam Fayad, while perpetuating its power behind the scenes. We won’t be surprised if some European powers find this prospect tempting.

By controlling power from a distance and remaining terrorist, Hamas would continue enjoying both worlds. While launching an Islamist takeover of Palestinian society via control of the mosques, Imams, education system as well as economic and social welfare ministries, Hamas would hold the terror card as extortion against Israel. The danger is that the illusion of temporary calm, promised by Hamas, would lull the international community into accepting the new situation. Hamas must be made to choose between terror and governance. It cannot have it both ways.

The only limit to Iran's nuclear program is the will of the West to confront it. Iran is watching. The Hamas test will send a critical signal to Tehran. The P5 meeting next week will set the terms for the emergency IAEA board meeting February 2, which will deliberate Iran's referral to the Security Council.

We face critical and immediate tests in the War on Terror. Hamas should be told, in no uncertain terms, to disarm and renounce its genocidal ideology or face the wrath of the civilized world. Tehran should be summoned to the Security Council for a rendezvous with John Bolton.