Vital Perspective

He must be off his meds again

Chavissimo is raving again: Hugo Chavez on Sunday said he believes enemies including the CIA are out to kill him, and called U.S. diplomat John Negroponte a "professional killer." [...]

Chavez said Venezuelan officials have intelligence that associates of jailed Cuban anti-communist militant Luis Posada Carriles also are involved in plotting to assassinate him.

He said the death plot idea has "gained weight" due to various factors, including the recent appointment of Negroponte, the former director of national intelligence, as deputy to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

"Who did they swear in ... there at the White House as deputy secretary of state? A professional killer: John Negroponte," Chavez said.

Too bad high oil demand keeps him flush.

Despite the Adminstration's denials that clipping Chavissimo's wings is behind this idea, we'd be surprised if it wasn't at least a component. 

Venezuela Emerging as 'Potential Hub of Terrorism'; Hezbollah Crossed Border

According to a congressional report released late this week, U.S. officials believe Venezuela is emerging as a "potential hub of terrorism". The House report says "Venezuela is providing support – including identity documents – that could prove useful to radical Islamic groups" through "cedulas", which are the equivalent of social security cards, to people from Cuba, Colombia and "Middle Eastern nations that host foreign terrorist organisations."

Officials fear that the Venezuelan government, headed by Hugo Chavez, is issuing the cards to "people who should not be getting them" and they could be used to get visas and gain entry to the U.S. "Recently, several Pakistanis were apprehended at the U.S.-Mexican border with fraudulent Venezuelan documents."

"U.S. immigration and customs enforcement investigations have revealed that aliens were smuggled from the Middle East to staging areas in Central and South America, before being smuggled illegally into the US," it says. On Hezbollah, the House report declares that members "have already entered the U.S. across the southwest border."

U.S. Reviews Arms Agreements, Future Warfare After Israel-Hezbollah War

John Hillen, Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs, had this to say about the implications of the Israel-Hezbollah war on U.S. arms sales and on the future of armed conflict in the latest issue of Defense News:

Q: What did you learn from the Israel-Hezbollah war?

HILLEN: From a policy perspective, we have been working to bring peacekeepers to southern Lebanon. Our main focus is to train and equip the Lebanese armed forces, which ultimately is the key to success.

From a defense trade perspective, Iranian support for Hezbollah raised serious questions. So how do you craft end-user agreements and third-party transfer limits with non-state actors sworn to bad purposes?

I have pressed our allies hard to understand our concerns. We recently put off-limits the sale of lethal arms to Venezuela, given our concerns about President Hugo Chavez's intentions. We had to work very hard with allies who have seen this as a market.

Q: Hezbollah used against Israel lots of sophisticated gear, including exact copies of American TOW anti-tank missiles said to be made in Iran. 

HILLEN: What happened between Hezbollah and Israel, and what is happening every day in Iraq and Afghanistan, is the future of conflict. Not many people are standing up and saying this whole insurgency thing is a fad and that in a few days we'll get back to good old state-on-state conflict. Rather, we must improve quickly.

Hillen's final statement, that this is the future of conflict, is probably dead-on. What we saw from Hezbollah was a terrorist organization operating as a state within a state that was armed as well as or superior to recognized states thanks to Syria and Iran. This has obviously thrown up many red flags in world capitals about their arms sales agreements and being able to restrict the second-hand sale of those arms. We believe that the world can go a long way towards seeing this same scenario unfold over and over again if the international community fully implements a complete arms embargo against terror groups and non-state actors as envisaged in Security Council Resolution 1701.

New Polls Show American Attitudes Towards Mideast Following War in Lebanon

Polling juggernaut Quinnipiac University has released an interesting new poll. QU asked 1,080 American voters to rate each of these countries on a scale of 0 -100 according to "how friendly or unfriendly do you think" each nation or group is to the U.S. These are the mean scores:

"The changes since our last poll show that the recent fighting in the Middle East has strengthened Americans' view that Israel is a friend to the U.S. and that Iran, Syria and the Palestinians are not," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The biggest change toward Israel has been among political independents."

Israel's support in the U.S. is stronger among Republicans (70.9) and independents (68.1) than among Democrats (60) and among men (71.9) than women (60.5).

In other findings, approval of the Palestinian Authority dropped from 25.0 to 22.8; Iran fell from 16.9 to 13.9; Syria, which was not previously polled on, scored third worst overall at 21.7. In each case, Democrats and women view those countries marginally more favorably than Republicans, independents or men. Additionally, Saudi Arabia, which condemned the original Hezbollah attack, dropped from 39.5 in June to 38.2.

"Although the changes in each case are modest, together it is reasonable to assume that they show the recent fighting increased Americans' sympathies toward Israel and increased the animosity in the United States toward Israel's enemies," said Brown.

There was also a new Harris Interactive poll released today that shows Americans view Israel and a friendly country and Iran as an enemy. The online poll of 3,685 adults measured American attitudes towards Turkey, Afghanistan and 11 others countries in the Middle East as well as attitudes toward eight leaders and organizations in the region.

Three-quarters of U.S. adults identify Israel as either a close ally or "a friend, but not an ally," compared with 16% who see the nation as "not friendly, but not an enemy" and 8% who see it as "unfriendly and an enemy."

By comparison, 76% of those polled view Iran as an enemy, while 21% see the country as not friendly, and only 4% view it as a close ally or friend. The region's other governments least likely to be seen as either an ally or friend were Syria (8%), Libya (12%), Lebanon (15%) and Iraq (18%).

As far as views of leaders in the region go, Israeli PM Ehud Olmert is viewed most positively by Americans (49%). Olmert was followed by King Abdallah of Jordan (44%), Iraqi President Jalal Talabani (37%), Lebanese PM Fouad Siniora (31%), Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (25%), the Palestinian Authority (23%), Hamas (17%) and Hezbollah (14%).

Venezuela's Chavez Mulls Sale of U.S.-Made F-16 Fighter Jets to Tehran

Venezuela is considering selling its fleet of U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets to another country, perhaps Iran, in response to a U.S. ban on arms sales to President Hugo Chavez's government, a military official said Tuesday.

Gen. Alberto Muller, a senior adviser to Chavez, told The Associated Press he had recommended to the defense minister that Venezuela consider selling the 21 jets to another country. Muller said he thought it was worthwhile to consider "the feasibility of a negotiation with Iran for the sale of those planes."

Even before the U.S. announced the ban on arms sales Monday, Washington had stopped selling Venezuela sensitive upgrades for the F-16s. Chavez has previously warned he could share the U.S. jets with Cuba if Washington does not supply parts for the planes. He also has said he may look into buying fighter jets from Russia or China instead.

Saudi's, Qatar Say OPEC Output is High Enough; Four States Miss Quotas

Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which together account for a third of OPEC's output, said members are doing enough to expand oil production capacity even as four states in the exporters group -- Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria and Indonesia -- have failed to meet their quotas since January. Crude oil in New York closed at $72.04 a barrel on Friday.

Iran, OPEC's second-largest oil producer, has seen its production capacity decline over the last 30 years from a peak of 6 million barrels a day in the mid-1970s to about 4 million today. Venezuela, OPEC's third largest oil producer, and Indonesia have seen their output capacities decline 20 percent this decade.

Saudi Oil minister Ali al-Naimi said oil producers should study future demand forecasts before boosting output capacity beyond what's already planned. "Global growth may not continue at this level for many years,'' he said in a speech today at an oil conference in Amman, Jordan.

Venezuela's Chavez Takes Another Stab at U.S., Warns Bush on Iran

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez defended Iran's nuclear program on Tuesday, saying Washington's opposition to Tehran and the invasion of Iraq both resulted from American energy concerns.

"You know that one of the most serious problems the world has today is the energy problem, so much so that the North American empire has invaded Iraq just to look for oil and now threatens Iran because of oil," Chavez said in a nationally televised speech, referring to the United States. "It's an excuse by the empire, looking for energy."

Chavez, who counts Mahmoud Ahmadinejad among his friends, also declared that he is "completely sure that it's absolutely false that the Iranian government is developing an atomic bomb." He also said that the U.S. has been defeated in Iraq, and forcasted that the U.S. "would eat twice as much of the dust of defeat [in an invasion of Iran], I'm absolutely sure of that."

Back in January when the IAEA voted to refer Iran to the Security Council over its nuclear program, Venezuela was joined only by Cuba and Syria in voting against it.

Hamas Invited to Meet with South African Government

A Hamas spokesman said Thursday that the terror group, which is to take over the Palestinian government this month, has been invited to South Africa for talks with officials. No timetable has been set for the visit, Spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said.

UN S-G Kofi Annan has said the international community should shun Hamas unless it recognizes Israel's right to live in peace, renounces terrorism and accepts the Mideast peace process.

"We would be concerned that giving legitimacy to an unreformed Hamas could stifle the possibility that the movement will transform itself from a terrorist organization to a political party," Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev said.

Hamas leaders are due to visit Russia on Friday and have also been invited to Venezuela for talks with government officials there. Senior Hamas officials have already met with Turkey's foreign minister.

Countries Begin Lining Up to Greet Hamas

On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal published an editorial on the new friends of Hamas. Russia and Venezuela are greeting them with open arms, and their decisions have been embraced by Spain and France.

The Journal expects "other countries to follow suit in this tacit legitimization of Hamas, thereby 'isolating' the Bush Administration, which refuses to deal with the group." While we expect nations like Venezuela and Iran to stand with Hamas, we remain disappointed in Russia for reaching out to them, and with Spain and France for providing support.

Iran Expresses Interest in Assisting Venezuelan Nuclear Program

Iran would be open to helping Venezuela develop nuclear technology, but the two countries have not yet held any talks about such cooperation, a top Iranian lawmaker said on Wednesday. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has been a vocal supporter of Iran's nuclear program.

"Although we have not had any conversations until now with Venezuelan authorities, we would be willing to study the possibility," Iran's parliament speaker, Gholamali Haddadadel said.

Venezuela is the world's number 5 oil exporter, last year said it was interesting in developing nuclear technology. Experts say any such development could take as long as ten years.