Vital Perspective

Olmert Hints at Nuclear Program, Takes Jab at SECDEF Gates for Testimony

Israeli PM Ehud Olmert hinted that Israel is aspiring to acquire nuclear weapons in an interview with the German N24 TV channel, lifting the veil over the ambiguity that characterizes the state's response to allegations surrounding its nuclear program. Israel has consistently insisted it will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle East.

"Iran, openly, explicitly and publicly threatens to wipe Israel off the map. Can you say that this is the same level, when they are aspiring to have nuclear weapons, as America, France, Israel, Russia?"

Incoming Secretary of Defense Robert Gates told a Senate committee last week that Israel has nuclear weapons. When asked about the bomb, Olmert cut the interviewer off, saying, "I'm certain you can go to the Secretary of Defense of America and talk to him about that."

This past weekend, former Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Daniel Ayalon criticized as "lamentable" the public disclosure by Gates that Israel is a nuclear power. "These are lamentable words. Perhaps his tongue is forked, but maybe not. In any case Israel must demand explanations," Ayalon told Israel's TV 10. "It is not up to Washington to end the policy of ambiguity."

SECDEF Nominee Gates: Nobody Can Assure Israel's Safety from Iranian Nukes

We're doing some blogging of the SECDEF hearings with Robert Gates, and thought this line of questioning from Sen. Graham on the Iranian nuclear threat was particularly interesting. Gates says that nobody - that's nobody - can assure Israel that they will not be attacked with an Iranian nuclear weapon should Iran obtain one:

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-SC): Iran. Do you believe the Iranians are trying to acquire nuclear weapons capability?

MR. GATES: Yes, sir, I do.

SEN. GRAHAM: Do you believe the president of Iran is lying when he says he's not?

MR. GATES: Yes, sir.

SEN. GRAHAM: Do you believe the Iranians would consider using that nuclear weapons capability against the nation of Israel?

MR. GATES: I don't know that they would do that, Senator. I think that the risks for them obviously are enormously high. I think that they see value --

SEN. GRAHAM: If I may?

MR. GATES: Yes, sir.

SEN. GRAHAM: The president of Iran has publicly disavowed the existence of the Holocaust, he has publicly stated that he would like to wipe Israel off the map. Do you think he's kidding?

MR. GATES: No, I don't think he's kidding. And -- but I think that there are, in fact, higher powers in Iran than he, than the president. And I think that while they are certainly pressing, in my opinion, for a nuclear capability, I think that they would see it in the first instance as a deterrent. They are surrounded by powers with nuclear weapons -- Pakistan to their east, the Russians to the north, the Israelis to the west, and us in the Persian Gulf --

SEN. GRAHAM: Can you assure the Israelis that they will not attack Israel with a nuclear weapon, if they acquire one?

MR. GATES: No, sir, I don't think that anybody can provide that assurance.

Public Schools, Michigan St. Univ. Awarded Grant to Develop Arabic Curriculum

Michigan State University and Dearborn public schools have received a grant from the Department of Defense to develop the first comprehensive Arabic instruction curriculum for U.S. schools. The grant, which will be approximately $1 million for the first year, have obvious ties to U.S. national security efforts.

"We realized after the end of the Cold War that the languages we were teaching are not the languages of need today," said Gail McGinn, deputy undersecretary of defense for plans. "We needed to reorient from the German, the French and the Russian into the more critical powerhouse languages of the world like Arabic and Chinese and Hindi."

All we have to say is that it's about time. While Spanish, French and German may be the most popular languages to learn in school's today, none of them will help U.S. national security efforts in the war on terror.

Two Kuwaitis Released from Guantanamo Following Emir's Meeting with Bush

Two Kuwaiti detainees at Guantanamo Bay went home this month after a personal plea from the emir of Kuwait to President Bush, an attorney said Thursday. Sheik Sabah Al Ahmed Al Sabah, the newly installed ruler, asked Bush for return of all six of his nationals just after Labor Day during an official visit to Washington, said attorney David Cynamon.

On September 14, the Pentagon announced the release of two of them -- Omar Rajab Amin, 31, and Abdullah Kamel al Kundari, 32, who had been held by the U.S. at Guantanamo since their capture in Afghanistan in early 2002.

Pentagon to Transfer Command of 12,000 U.S. Troops in Afghanistan to NATO

Secretary Rumsfeld has agreed to put 12,000 troops in eastern Afghanistan under NATO command, possibly as soon as next month. The command shift, approved at a two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers, would extend NATO's area of operations across all of Afghanistan. It would still leave about 10,000 American troops, including Special Operations units, under exclusive American control.

The decision to place more than half of U.S. forces in Afghanistan under NATO theater commander Lt. Gen. David J. Richards of Britain would put the alliance in control of 32,000 soldiers from 37 countries.

In discussions on Thursday, a NATO official said several countries discussed providing additional troops or equipment, including Denmark, the Czech Republic and Canada. But major European powers, including France, Germany, Italy and Spain, have not sent additional troops to the south. American officials said it was unlikely that American units would be shifted in large numbers to the south because they were needed on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, where attacks have also intensified.

Pentagon Dismisses Report of Navy Plans for Blockade of Iranian Oil Ports

The Pentagon is dismissing a report in Time magazine that the Navy is secretly dusting off plans that would help the U.S. to go to war with Iran. The story in Time said Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Mullen had asked subordinates to put "fresh eyes" on old U.S. plans to blockade two Iranian oil ports in the Gulf. The order allegedly came after the Navy first issued a "prepare to deploy" order to a submarine, an Aegis-class cruiser, two minesweepers and two mine hunters.

The report also said that the notion of deploying minesweepers anywhere is telling, and could mean a blockade of a place like the Strait of Hormuz, a small opening through which almost half the world's supply of oil passes daily between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea.

Confirming the accuracy of the Time magazine report is difficult. Defense officials have a strict policy of not talking about operational plans, which would be classified anyway. Asked about similar questions in the past, defense officials have demurred, saying they have contingency plans for nearly any operation.

CENTCOM Commander: 140,000 Troops Needed in Iraq Through Next Spring

Gen. John Abizaid says that more than 140,000 U.S. troops will likely be needed through next spring to suppress sectarian violence and secure Baghdad. "I think that this level probably will have to be sustained through the spring, and then we'll re-evaluate," Abizaid told defense reporters in Baghdad. Pentagon officials have said there are now 147,000 troops in Iraq due to an overlap of units rotating in and out.

Abizaid said six months ago he thought U.S. forces levels would be down by a couple of brigades by now, but he said that was put off by a surge of sectarian violence and the it took for an Iraqi government to form. The situation in Baghdad is "slightly better" since U.S. troops were brought into the capital from other parts of the country, but it will take a couple of months to clarify things militarily, he said.

Maintaining more than 140,000 troops in Iraq represents a significant jump in U.S. force levels, which had gone down to as low as 127,000 in June. Abizaid said he has not asked for more U.S. ground troops because it was important for Iraqi military forces take more responsibility for operations.

Iraqi Deputy PM Briefs Reporters at Pentagon on Political, Security Progress

Earlier today, Iraqi Deputy PM Barham Salih discussed progress in Iraq over at The Pentagon and then took questions from the press. With the domestic debate over Iraq heating up, we'd like to highlight one particular statement he made: "We have embarked on a monumental project in Iraq about building a functioning democracy in the heart of the Islamic Middle East. This is a part of the world that has not known anything close to representative government or democracy or open debate. It is not easy, yet we are doing it. I am proud to point to important progress that we have achieved over the last two, three years of transition, including two parliamentary elections, provincial elections, and the first popularly ratified constitution in the history of that part of the world."

MR. SALIH: I arrived here a couple of days ago. I've been watching television and reading newspapers. I do so from the comfort of my home in Baghdad and browse the Web and watch CNN International. But I did not imagine the level of the debate and the tone of the debate in the United States the way that I have seen it over the last couple of days.

So I welcome the opportunity to give you firsthand experience of what I feel about the situation in Iraq and what our assessment about developments there are.

Obviously, it's wonderful to be in this building and to thank you for the opportunity. It is important for any Iraqi leader to -- or official to come to Washington and to visit this building, to meet with the leadership of this building and to offer through them to the American public and to the U.S. military the gratitude that we all feel about American commitment to the liberation of Iraq, no matter what criticism here and there about the policy. But one thing fundamental for us Iraqis is that the United States has helped us overcome tyranny and gave us the greatest gift of all -- freedom.

It has not been an easy transition over the last two years. Definitely, it has been tough, and we are dealing with many, many tough challenges, but we all have to acknowledge that Iraqis are a lot better off without Saddam Hussein, the region is a lot better off without Saddam Hussein, the world is better off without Saddam Hussein.

Military Developing Weapons to Penetrate Targets Buried Deep Underground

According to Aviation Week & Space Technology (subscription), military strategists are developing and fielding weapons capable of penetrating deeper than ever for the kill as it becomes more common for enemies to shield weapons and technology beneath more and more concrete.

The Pentagon is investing heavily to counter hard and deeply buried targets. Some assessments now suggest a number of WMD-related sites are positioned under more than 20 meters of heavily reinforced concrete and layers of dirt and sand. Many would-be adversaries, including Iran, have also buried critical command-and-control sites underground to increase the likelihood of operations during a strike. Destroying these targets would be central to any military attempt to cripple Iran's nuclear ambitions.

The principal challenge of destroying an underground target, according to U.S. weapons experts, is maintaining a weapon's integrity through a violent penetration and timing the weapon's explosion accurately. Layers of concrete and soil place extraordinary stresses on weapons. Critical components, such as fuzes and weapons casings, must be able to stand up to the task. With sensitive sites housing chemical or biological substances or nuclear materials, weapons developers are working on means to reduce their dispersion and limit potential collateral damage from toxic plumes upon strike.

One tactical challenge to striking a large underground facility is that adversaries are no longer simply hiding underground behind blast doors. They are now tunneling deeper and installing blast slabs to defeat existing penetrator stockpiles.

The Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) is a behemoth of a bomb, weighing almost 30,000 lbs., that is designed to deal with such design measures and "overwhelm target characterization uncertainties," according to officials. The Defense Threat Reduction Agency and Air Force Research Laboratory are planning five flight tests, beginning in May, to drop the bomb from a B-52. Optimum penetrating distance is classified, but some analysts say it is as much as 200 ft. through reinforced concrete and soil or sand.

Israel doesn't have a weapon in the class of the MOP but is acquiring U.S. penetrator weapons and almost certainly has its own development programs. Some Israeli defense officials suggest that Israel is looking at the defeat of deeply hardened targets by using multiple rounds to burrow to a target. This requires not only accuracy, but may also require air crew to stay on-station to await their turn to release weapons. Alternatively, the target could be revisited on a number of occasions. These options, however, could expose air crews to an orchestrated defense, with the element of surprise lost.

Military Beefing Up Training, Instruction on Counter-Insurgency Techniques

Jane's Defence Weekly (subscription) reports that the U.S. Army and Marine Corps are putting the finishing touches on a new counter-insurgency manual that is designed to fill a crucial gap in U.S. military doctrine.

Military leaders describe the new manual as part of a larger cultural shift that will affect the way the services train, equip and fight. The growing emphasis on counter-insurgency will require more language training and cultural awareness, skills traditionally the domain of special operations forces.

"What we are trying to do is point out to leaders in particular - to staff officers and to leaders at all levels - that some of the conventional thinking does not necessarily translate to unconventional operations, stability operations, irregular warfare or counter-insurgency," said Lt. Gen. David Petraeus, commanding general of the Combined Arms Center and Commandant of the Command and General Staff College.

The curriculum at the Command and General Staff College now focuses much more heavily on counter-insurgency, with instruction in this area for about 200 hours. The number of masters' theses being written on counter-insurgency topics has jumped dramatically following U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.

Military doctrine is only one part of a broader commitment to counter-insurgency within the U.S. government. The State Department is committing funds to counter-insurgency efforts in Iraq and is putting together a national counter-insurgency conference in September that will draw together representatives from various government agencies.