Assad Putting Security Measures in Place to Protect Against Potential Coup

Strategy Page reports that in Syria, the Alawite dictatorship is in big trouble. Under increasing pressure from the UN, regarding Syrian involvement in the assassination of Lebanese politician Rafik Hariri in February of 2005, Syrian President Bashar Assad must either act against those in his government who are believed to be responsible, or face significant international sanctions.

Although the Israel-Hezbollah war gave Assad some breathing space, the UN is again ratcheting up the pressure. His problem is that if he does reshuffle his government, and fire the most obvious suspects, he may face resistance from hard-line Baathist elements, and possibly even a coup. On the other hand, if he ignores the UN, the sanctions may spark popular unrest and even rioting, since the bulk of the Syrian people are growing increasingly unhappy about living in poverty brought about by decades of rule by the Alawite minority.

Reportedly, Assad has initiated security measures that could be useful against either a coup or public disorder. Most Muslim nations are Sunni, and some of them are showing an interest in supporting a Sunni uprising in Syria. Sunni Arabs, in particular, are terrified of Iran, which is ruled by Shiites. Iran has long propped up Syria, in part because the Alawites are a Shia sect.