Vital Perspective

Report: Armored Vehicles on Gaza Border, Palestinians Urged to Leave Rafah

Dozens of Israeli armored vehicles have massed at the border with Gaza and a military spokesman ordered Palestinians to evacuate an area close to the frontier with Egypt, witnesses said. The IDF had no immediate comment on the reported deployment.

Witnesses said a military spokesman jammed the frequency of a Palestinian radio station to broadcast a message urging Palestinians to evacuate Rafah's border with Egypt ad that several Israeli naval boats offshore moved closer to the Gaza coast.

Israel, alleging that terrorists have stepped up arms smuggling into Gaza near Rafah, sends in troops periodically to try to find and destroy tunnels beneath the border and underground hideouts.

UPDATE 10/31 @ 16:39: Via TIP: The number of Qassam rockets launched in October, in comparison to September, has increased drastically. According to the IDF, about 15 Qassams landed in Israel during September. In October, 72 Qassam rockets and 12 mortars were launched from Gaza into Israel. Twelve of the Qassams have landed in the southern Israeli city of Sderot.

In the past month, IDF ground troops have unearthed 14 tunnels Palestinians used for smuggling weapons from Egypt into the Gaza Strip. Additional shafts and uncompleted tunnels have been found near the Gaza security fence.

Islamic Jihad Launches Qassam Rockets From Gaza at Southern Israel Cities

A Palestinian Qassam rocket fired by Islamic Jihad landed in an open area near "a strategic site" in Israel's coastal city of Ashkelon, Israeli Radio quoted army sources on Monday. The rocket, fired from northern Gaza, caused slight damages. The timing of the attack - early morning - played a critical role in the limited damage and casualties.

The situation in Ashkelon has been relatively quiet recently, but the Palestinian Qassam rocket attacks against southern Israel's town of Sderot has continued in spite of the ongoing operations by the IDF in Gaza to curb rocket attacks.

Report: Hezbollah's Arms Suppliers Rank as Top Purchasers of Russian Arms

The Congressional Research Service said Iran and Syria were the biggest Middle East importers of Russian weapons from 2002 through 2005. In a report, CRS said the orders marked Russia's return to the Middle East weapons market.

"The principal purchasers of Russian arms were: Iran [$1.7 billion], Syria [$800 million],Yemen [$500 million], Libya, and Israel [$300 million each]," the report, entitled "Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations 1998-2005," said.

Back in August, we wrote about one of Hezbollah's most sophisticated and deadly weapons being used against Israeli tanks: the Russian-made Metis-M anti-tank missile. The Metis-M killed seven soldiers in two days of fighting in August and damaged three Israeli-made merkava talks. At the time of initial posting, most of the 44 soldiers killed in four weeks of fighting were hit by anti-tank missiles.

Hezbollah gets almost all of its weaponry from Syria and by extension Iran, including its anti-tank missiles. If Russia stops arms sales to Iran and Syria in combination with strict enforcement of the arms embargo outlined in Security Council Resolution 1701, then Hezbollah will not have the capability to wage war as a state within a state. That's why cutting off the supply chain is essential.

Egypt May Amend Constitution to Make Presidential Politics More Accessible

Egypt will amend its constitution to make it easier for candidates to run for president, part of long-delayed political reforms that President Hosni Mubarak plans to carry out next year, Parliament Speaker Fathi Sorour said. The reforms would include changes to an article that had been criticized as opening the way for Mubarak's son, Gamal, to succeed him.

Presidential spokesman Suleiman Awad also noted a change was likely, saying in a statement that Mubarak "won't oppose considering an amendment to article 76 in order to increase the chances of parties to participate in presidential elections."

Opponents say the ruling National Democratic Party will do nothing to bring real change to the country's political scene, which has been dominated by Mubarak since 1981. The U.S. has called greater democracy in the Middle East a top priority, and at one time wanted its ally Egypt to be the centerpiece of reform.

Gamal Mubarak, 42, has risen rapidly through the ranks of his father's party in recent years and is now deputy secretary general. Hosni Mubarak, 78, has also never appointed a vice president, saying he has not found someone suitable and is not required to by the constitution.

Qatar Launches Program in Schools to Prepare Youth for Democratic Process

Ahmed bin Abdullah al-Mahmoud, Qatari Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, declared yesterday that the Gulf state has launched an education and awareness campaign in schools and universities to prepare its youth for a successful democratic process in the country. "It is noticed that the stability of security, education, culture and economic and social development are instrumental components towards the success of this experience", the minister said, while talking about the education initiative.

This is welcomed news, because according to Freedom House, Qatar is not free. Qataris cannot change their government democratically. They possess only limited power to elect local government representatives with limited powers over local services. These representatives report to the minister of municipal affairs and agriculture, who is appointed by the emir, who is the head of state.

The current emir, Khalifa bin Hamad Al Thani, and the Al Thani family, has a monopoly on political power. The emir appoints a prime minister and the cabinet. The constitution states that the emir appoints an heir after consulting with the royal family and other notables. A constitution, ratified by public referendum in 2003 and promulgated by the emir in 2004, provides for elections to 30 of the 45 seats in a new advisory council. The emir has the power to appoint the other 15 members of the advisory council.

Former DCI Woolsey to Speak on the Hill: Understanding the Iranian Threat

Heads up for DC readers. The American Foreign Policy Council is holding a potentially interesting event on November 15 on the Hill from 09:00-13:30 entitled "Understanding the Iranian Threat". Confirmed speakers include former DCI James Woolsey, Nina Shea from Freedom House and Ilan Berman from AFPC. It's free to attend but you have to reserve a seat by contacting Annie Earley at earley@afpc.org or 202-543-1006.

Saudi Envoy Tells U.S. to Use Relationship with Israel to Force Peace Deal

Saudi Ambassador to the U.S. Prince Turki Al-Faisal told the Bush administration to use its friendship with Israel to push Jerusalem into a peace agreement with the Palestinians. Speaking at a conference on U.S.-Arab relations, the ambassador said only the U.S. could do it because of its relationship with Israel. He said, "The United States is the only country that can do the right thing for everybody in the Middle East." Referring to the stalled peace process, the prince said, "The United States devised the Road Map, it needs to implement it." The full text of his remarks are available below the fold.

Today in Washington

09:15	PRESIDENT BUSH REMARKS AT MEETING WITH SPECIAL ENVOY TO SUDAN ANDREW NATSIOS OVAL OFFICE
10:30	REGULAR WHITE HOUSE BRIEFING W/TONY SNOW
12:30	STATE DEPARTMENT BRIEFING W/SEAN MCCORMACK
13:00	COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS MEETING WITH SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON CFR, NEW YORK CITY
13:00	REMARKS BY UNDERSECRETARY OF STATE NICHOLAS BURNS TO THE US-AFGHAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE RE: U.S. SUPPORT FOR AFGHANISTAN'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. FOUR SEASONS HOTEL, WASHINGTON
TBA	DEFENSE DEPARTMENT OPERATIONAL UPDATE BRIEFING, IF ANY.

Proliferation Security Initiative Exercise Has 25 Nations Miles Off Iranian Coast

Earlier today, 25 nations took part in a U.S.-led naval exercise in waters not far from Iran aimed at training forces to block the transport of weapons of mass destruction and related equipment. Italy, the U.S., Australia, Britain, France and Bahrain deployed ships and personnel to the drill, part of President Bush's Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI). Other countries, including the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan and South Korea, sent observers.

About 20 miles from Iranian waters in the Persian Gulf, Italian and Bahraini marines sped through the water in small inflatable bloats and boarded a British vessel, the RFA Brambleleaf, which was carrying mock nuclear detonators. Marines armed with machine guns guarded the crew as another team searched the vessel.

Iran said it was not concerned about the exercise but warned those participating not to destabilize the region. "Given the amicable ties among countries of the region and the powerful presence of ... Iran as standard bearer of peace, justice and security, there is no room for any concern," the official IRNA news agency quoted government spokesman Gholamhossein Elham as saying.

Several Middle Eastern countries have endorsed PSI principles this year after visits by U.S. officials to the region were stepped up, a State Department official who declined to be identified said. Sunni Gulf Arab states have traditionally been wary of Iran's Shiite imperialistic intentions in the region.

One major player that was not present was Russia, perhaps because of President Vladimir Putin's desire for further talks on Iran's nuclear program. Russia is not convinced there is a case for tougher sanctions against Iran and is at present time building an atomic reactor in Iran. If you're not convinced that Tehran is pursuing nuclear weapons, then you probably wouldn't see the utility today's PSI exercise.

Israeli FM Livni Cancels Qatar Trip Over Conference Participation by Hamas

Israeli FM Tzipi Livni has dropped plans to visit Qatar after learning that Hamas members would represent the Palestinian government at an international conference in Doha. The ministry said it had instead sent its deputy director for Middle East affairs, Yacov Hadas, to the conference on New or Restored Democracies instead.

"We have learnt that members of Hamas will represent the Palestinians at the international conference in Qatar, and Livni has therefore decided to cancel her visit there," Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev said. Livni would have been the most senior official to visit in a decade.