American Foreign Policy Council Releases Latest Iran Democracy Report

The American Foreign Policy Council has released via email their latest Iran Democracy Monitor report -- a quick look at radicalism and reform in the Islamic Republic:

IRAN'S AZERIS MOBILIZE... The recent protests in Iran's ethnically-Azeri north over the government's publication of an offensive cartoon may be turning into something more. In what could be an early stirring toward self-determination, Azeri activists have formed a makeshift opposition militia to lobby for local rights. The group, which calls itself the South Azerbaijan National Freedom Army and is comprised of former soldiers in the Iranian military, reportedly is dedicated to the "restoration" of Azeri rights in Iran. Among other things, the group is seeking more autonomy for ethnic media, greater education rights, and increased political recognition from Tehran. (today.az, June 2, 2006)

...AS THE REGIME SEARCHES FOR A SCAPEGOAT: Iranian officials, meanwhile, are still scrambling to undo the damage from the late-May controversy. Rumors are swirling that Iran's parliament, or majles, is making plans to impeach five members of president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's cabinet over the government's poor handling of the scandal. Chief among the officials targeted for "negligence" in the affair is the country's hard-line Minister of Islamic Culture and Guidance, Saffar Harandi. A petition for Harandi's impeachment by some forty majles deputies is said to be currently under review by the legislature's Presiding Board. (Tehran E'temad, June 13, 2006)

IRAN EXPANDS OUTREACH TO THE PA: Tehran continues to strengthen its ties to the fledgling Hamas government in the Palestinian Territories. At a June 12 meeting with the Palestinian Health and Foreign Ministers, Basim Na'im and Mahmoud Zahhar, Iranian Red Crescent Society Director Sayyid al-Khatami pledged what amounts to a major expansion of his government's humanitarian presence in the Palestinian Authority. Under the plan discussed by Na'im, Zahhar and al-Khatami, Iran will establish two new hospitals in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, clinics in Rafah, Jenin, Hebron and Tulkarem, and a scholarship program to train aspiring Palestinian doctors and medical personnel in Iran. (Jerusalem Al-Quds, June 13, 2006).

AN INTENSIFYING LEADERSHIP STRUGGLE: With elections for Iran's powerful Assembly of Experts just months away - and with the post of Supreme Leader potentially hanging in the balance - the political jockeying between the contenders is heating up. During an early-June speech in the Iranian center of Qom, Expediency Council chairman (and former president) Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was publicly heckled by supporters of the Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi. The disruption, which resulted in the arrest of several of Mesbah-Yazdi's followers, appears to have everything to do with politics; observers say that Mesbah-Yazdi, the spiritual mentor of Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, could be positioning himself for a power grab in the Assembly elections.

Mesbah-Yazdi may be in for a serious fight, however. In a thinly-veiled threat against the firebrand cleric, the Jomhiuri Islami newspaper, which is affiliated with the regime's security forces, has warned that unless he is careful Mesbah-Yazdi could end up meeting the same fate as previous political opponents of the regime, such as the Ayatollahs Shariatmadari and Montazeri. (Tehran Rooz, June 15, 2006)